I did a Q&A a couple weeks ago (Q&A: First year macro hedge fund analyst | Wall Street Oasis) where I promised some people I would go more deeply into my macro view and provide some resources that I've found helpful. This is that thread. My Framework: I focus pretty heavily on how the monetary/banking/financial system functions from a high-level, what are the goals, incentives, and motivations of the major players, and how that drives capital flows across geographies and asset classes. This means understanding the activities and motivations of the largest banks (GSIBs) and Primary Dealers and
21 Aug 2021
I remember when I first got interested in finance I got a lot of useful information from this site, so I wanted to pay it back. I noticed there isn't a lot of content about Macro funds on this site (or really anywhere on the internet that I know of) so maybe this will help some people out. First, some basic background: I've been working at a Macro HF for about a year now. I came straight out of undergrad, although I did the standard junior year summer analyst stint at a BB investment bank. My coworkers and the work environment at my IB were actually amazing, but I realized the job wasn't
05 Aug 2021
Background - Attended a top non-ivy undergrad with a degree in mathematics and economics. Prior to leaving for a multi-strat hedge fund (think Bluecrest, Millennium, Balasny, etc.), I was a macro derivatives trader on the sellside. The vast majority of my daily work was focused on idea generation, backtesting and quantifying risk/reward on prop positions with the rest 20% market marking related. Given my current role on the buyside, my product scope includes futures, bonds, CDX index swaps, CDX index swaptions, IRS, Swaptions, ED$ options and more exotic derivatives as well. The objective is
06 May 2021
Hello Fellow Monkeys, For some background, I've been a member of the WSO community for years. Wasn't always the most active poster but, like for many others, WSO served as an immensely helpful source of information for me throughout undergrad. Especially coming from a non-target school, with a mediocre GPA, and no prior contacts in the industry, I specifically found the Q&A/AMA posts to be quite eye opening. Now ~6 years removed from college, I figured that it may be worth hosting my own Q&A/AMA under a new username as a way to pay it forward. Happy to answer any and all questions as it
29 Sep 2021
Hi everyone! :) I am a Spanish graduate student attending an Ivy League university in the US (think Wharton/Columbia/Yale) studying finance and economics. I know I want to work in the Buy Side but I am still unsure if I should do AM or PB. I appreciate work/life balance and I would like to work in EU (UK/ Spain/ Switzerland) after graduation. I have two interesting offers for this summer and both have pros and cons, so I am not sure which one to choose, given that both want me to intern with them on July-August. The positions and characteristics are the following: 1. Dodge & Cox -
26 Jan 2021
When I joined the industry, fresh analysts like myself would flit through the morning newspaper like a drowning man who clutches one spar after another for support. Our attempts to stay abreast were as haphazard as that man's attempts to stay afloat. On page 1, we would read an article concerning Greece's tussle with Germany but forget it by the time we reached page 8. It took me some time (two years) to develop a coherent macro framework on which every news article now fits to compound my existing knowledge. It took me an immense amount of conscious effort (reading) to become familiar with
13 Apr 2016
I'm well aware that a macro hedge fund is designed to 'trade globally based on economic theory' but I doubt that PM's at these funds are prepared to take long term trades founded purely on macroeconomic predictions, as this would result on very few trades and I imagine a low success rate (It's hardly easy predicting the future; just look how badly economists do it).
02 Feb 2015
Hi All, I am a second-year Consultant at a major Restructuring firm. I have slowly realized this is not what I want to do long-term and am looking for a career switch. Specifically, I would like my next steps to involve exposure to macro trends and deep/ thoughtful work on how to profit from those trends. I understand it may not be a direct path to that type of job. What would you recommend in terms of next career steps? Should I attempt to make a direct jump to buyside? Is that even possible from RX Consulting? And if I switch to banking, what company/ industry-focus should I target? Thanks
21 Jul 2021
I recently had the pleasure of networking with a BB trader and one of the things he told me is that he thinks one of the best seats to get on a trading floor is a position as an equity derivatives trader, especially if you're interested in transitioning to a macro fund. Any idea why/if this is true? I have a rough idea what the job entails; trading of non-linear equity products and ETF's. I have also read that this desk is normally filled with extremely bright and quick witted individuals and that there is quite high turnover. But that is essentially the extent of my knowledge. So I was hoping someone would elaborate on the job as a whole. Specifically, why it is a good place to get a macro skill set, compared to FX or Rates? Is there any opportunity to take risk?
04 Dec 2014
I've been asking a lot of questions on here lately hope no one minds. This is a great resource for me So I have been trading stocks for a while and have always been more interested in the concept of futures and foreign exchange. I like to focus on the world economy and the bigger picture. I like the Idea of Global macro. So what I'm really asking here is 1. Is 5000 dollars enough for A futures and FX account 2. What platform do you recommend? I currently use TD Thinkorswim (is that good enough?) 3. Are there any research sites you recommend that will really help me out in finding my information? 4. are there any books you recommend? I've read a lot of the obvious ones for Stocks but there doesn't seem to be as much on FX and Futures
30 Jul 2012
I was doing some reading about how managers approach finding ideas in the global macro space and I came up on a book (Asymmetric Returns by Alexander Ineichen) which briefly discussed some of the approaches mangers use to finding trade ideas. One of them was the feedback approach which is to play the downward trend as a bubble deflates and the snap-back during a recovery. There's been a lot of this going on lately (what with the credit crunch and equity rally, and oncoming bond crash) and I was wondering if this approach was still common at large global macro players today. I found an interview of guy who seems to use just this strategy (http://www.eurekahedge.com/news/11_july_Interview…) which is quite interesting.
18 Nov 2010
Hey everyone I was hoping someone could give me a salary range for an analyst role for a macro strategy at one of the platform HFs, i.e. Graham, Millennium, Caxton, etc. I have worked at small macro firm for past two years and am pretty close to accepting an analyst job at a large macro platform. They are asking what my desired salary and full year comp are and I want to just be in the right range. Responsibilities would include fundamental macro analysis at the country level, asset class specific research some econometric research and modeling. Any help is very much appreciated. Kind regards.
24 Mar 2011
I for one think Grexit will happen, and we should already prepare for the worst. However, what do you think and even more importantly, what does your firm think? People say it has been priced in...but has it? People say there are firewalls, but how do you really know your firewalls work in the massive CDS market? Will this be another Lehman? It would also be helpful to get some derivatives people's viewpoints here, and also some European debt capital mkts viewpoints here. 1. In plain English, how regulated is short-selling sovereign debt in Europe? 2. Can someone explain to me how CDS affects
29 May 2015
Hi everyone! I have been working at my current fund for just over 2 yrs, and am looking to transition into a different HF or Prop Shop. I started as a summer intern in 2013, was hired on as a TMT analyst on the trading desk and also focused on global macro research, then was promoted to trader in July of 2014 and specialized in equity/options on tech sector. I've had a passion for market since before I was a teenager, and am always driven to outperform. I've been mentored by the best managers in the industry, and possess extensive knowledge in macroeconomics and financial markets, in addition
04 Aug 2015
Do you guys think that Alan Howard is the most reclusive hedge fund manager out there? I have been trying to get info on him and Brevan Howard, and it seems like both man and firm are pretty secretive. He is a billionaire and they don't even have a photo of him. One cool fact about him that I read, was how on trading floors they used to refer to as Mr. Bond.
08 Dec 2011
Hey all, posting on behalf of a friend, but am also interested. Yes this is another grad looking at BB > HF/PE thread, but it's with the best intentions (ie. experience gained through genuine interest in the role, not just money to be made). How foolish is it to enter finance (FICC S&T, economics research, whatever) with the intention of moving to a Global Macro Hedge Fund a few years down the line? It's not that my friend doesn't want to do S&T (on the contrary) but he thinks in 5/10 years time he'd rather be in a hedge fund, but that the few years experience would be i) insightful and ii) enjoyable.
21 Jul 2012
Hi buddies, recently I've been reached on by HR to settle on a phone interview for this position at UBS (Zürich), I would like to know if you have some insights on to what the interview is being all about, pretty much I think just competency based, but I rather know about further rounds. I've come from a non financial background (Engineering), passed CFA L1 this June and more than likely I would be passing FRM P1 (wrote on November) too. Thank you guys
18 Dec 2014
Hello monkeys – Over the last three years, I have observed an enormous increase in the attention paid, both by sell-side and buy-side, to developments in China. One post does not do justice to the topic but hopefully this can get you started in forming a macro view on China: On April 20th, 2014, Forbes carried an article suggesting that Li Ka-Shing, the 'Superman' of Hong Kong and 'China's Warren Buffet', is moving out of China which may indicate an early warning of an imminent slowdown. Meanwhile, the real Warren Buffet has, very famously, said: [quote]The 19th century belonged to England
27 Feb 2015
Are there headhunters that specialize in macro roles (the same way Robin Judson mostly does credit roles)? Would be looking for an analyst/strategist/junior PM (essentially a PM-track) role at a place that runs some kind of macro sub-strategy. There seem to be a lot of PE funds (KKR, Fortress, Carlyle) and asset managers (PWP, Highbridge, SAC, Och-Ziff etc.) that run macro books which get overlooked since they're not what the fund is primarily known for. How does someone get a foot in the door for one of these roles?
08 May 2015
Hey guys! Anyone heard of Elm Partners? www.elmfunds.com They are headed by Victor Haghani (ex Solomon Brothers/LTCM/JWM trader,also known from "When Genius Failed" & "Liar's Poker" books). Hows their reputation? They have Active Index Investing strategy. More info on their website and on videos below:
Any thoughts on their strategies? Do you think they would be an interesting place for a career? [quote]Elm will make about $433,000 this year from its 0.12 percent management fee. Haghani stretches that to pay
06 May 2015
Title pretty much says it all. I'm already running my own sell-side books/risk and have some PnL history, trying to move to buyside. I'm still a little hesitant to jump into a buy-side sink or swim PM role at this point, but have some opportunities to work closely with some prominent discretionary Macro PMs/founders of multi-billion funds. However the roles are all described as execution trading.
23 Mar 2014
So I'm working for a start-up HF as an analyst, we do mostly L/S with a global macro overlay. I'm French/American and long-term I would very much like to stay and work in Europe. What difference does working in London vs. NYC make in terms of schedule for a macro PM? Does a macro PM in London keep roughly the same hours as one in NYC? Or do you try and catch all of Euro+US market hours?
17 Dec 2013
As sick as it sounds, I've been waiting for an event like this to blog. This announcement seems unprecendented and its big enough to be able to make a profitable financial play. Here are my thoughts: While this might bring joy and relief tonight, tomorrow morning the feeling is going to turn into uncertainty. We all know uncertainty brings volatility so what can we do? I predict the following: - Shock depreciation of the Korean Won against the USD - Depreciation of the Yen against the USD - Selloff of Korean sov and corps, leading to a rise in korean rates. -Widening of the long-short spread of Korean won denominated bonds So if my predictions pan out, would this be the play? - Short won/long usd - Borrow in Korea, lend in USA/Canada/Swiss
18 Dec 2011
The Financial Times has recently released their top 10 Hedge Fund manager list, and no surprise here, it's pretty much a cross section of the funds found on this recent thread. (Which I just found out also has a link to the article… Moving on.) Net gains for investors since inception was the measure used to rank the managers and a lot of surprising facts about their returns were given, like did you know Eddie Lampert's ESL has earned more than British Airways over the same period?
15 Sep 2010
Hi, I've been in New York for just over a year and am finally settled in. Currently, I work on the sell side covering event driven trading (90% merger arbitrage). My eventual goal is to move to the buy-side, a transition that I hope to make within the next two years. Wondering if anyone can suggest how I can make the transition, such as attending any NYC conference/events that could gain me exposure to buy-sides? I am also curious on branching out to other strategies in addition to merger arbitrage, by this I mean specifically distressed investing, special situations and discretionary macro
14 Dec 2019
The Black Swan author Nassim Taleb was in Canada last week for the Salon Speakers series and was asked by an audience member; if given a choice between investing with Buffett and billionaire investor George Soros, who would he pick? The former prop trader said he would probably pick Soros, and argued that: [quote=Taleb]"I am not saying Buffett isn't as good as Soros," he said. "I am saying that the probability Soros's returns come from randomness is much smaller because he did almost everything: he bought currencies, he sold currencies, and he did arbitrages. He made a lot more decisions
28 Sep 2010
Global macro is undoubtedly one of the most pursued styles in the hedge fund world, and for the monkeys interested in it, you might find this to your liking. Opalesque TV has recently interviewed Argonaut Capital founder David Gerstenhaber about global macro and the Tiger cub had a lot interesting things to say about it. A former economist at Morgan Stanley, Gerstenhaber entered the macro arena when he joined Tiger as partner back in the 80's. He talks about how much of a swashbuckling experience it was back then; where making big bets for abnormal returns with limited risk management was de
30 Nov 2010
I have read a few books (and online resources) on macro investing but I still don't have a good grasp on the concept of risk per trade. Could you help me understanding it please? (below are a few thoughts I have on this). I find the consensus advice from the legends and pros is that that traders should not risk more than 1-2% per trade. However, I am not sure what exactly this number means. I have thought and interpreted this in a few ways: 1) Based on AUM: For instance, if you manage $100 mm, then your gross exposure per trade is $2 mm. Says if you make 10% on that trade then you make $200 m
03 Jul 2017
Out of the different avenues I could try to pursue in finance, right now working at a global macro could be the most appealing to me. I have little interest in investment banking. It seems like the good hedge funds only take post mba students. Aside from investment banking, would be some good paths to take to reach the goal of working at global macro fund? And how ridiculously intelligent are the people there? I am very smart, have a 4.00 with little effort, but am in no way a genius.
08 Aug 2011
Inspired by a recent employer attractiveness survey, Jorge, an obscure yet devastatingly handsome writer for the world's premiere finance community, Wall Street Oasis, has decided to run a survey on who are the most attractive CEO's in Wall Street to work for. Choosing from over 20 nominees from the world's top banks, consulting, private equity, and fund management firms, monkeys from all over the world will vote in the comments section which 3 of the top CEOs, fund managers, or directors they want to work with the most. The winning CEOs will most likely not be notified of their victory, but
10 Nov 2010
Hello all, I am a complete noob when it comes to portfolio and risk management. I am currently a global macro analyst at a boutique research shop. But, saying in my report that clients should go long country X, and short country Y on a 12-month time horizon is probably really different than actually implementing that position in the context of other existing positions. So, do you guys have any book recommendation regarding portfolio construction, allocation and risk management? For example, I am currently implementing the equal risk contribution technique, from an academic paper title (On the
04 Jul 2017
Hey guys, I have the option to join startup macro hedge fund. I'm currently an associate in macro research (think commodities/fx) at BB. Pros and cons of making the move? I've seen a few posts here about Macro HF vs S&T but nothing on Research vs global macro. Thanks
30 Mar 2017
Jawad S. Mian, former CIBC and QInvest PM is starting a new global macro fund, The Good Society Fund (TGSF), see this presentation. Themes - Developed economy governments insolvent; burdening unemployment becoming a source for increased social and economic strain - Process of deleveraging and global rebalancing underway - Increased risk of geopolitical tensions and social conﬂict (esp. Southeast Asia, with China, the US and Russia battling over influence) - Central banks tradition of selling off gold reversed to buying in past years Investment Theses
12 Apr 2013
I have seen a lot of discussions on this forum regarding the "typical" career path to global macro; however, I have not seen much discussion on what is a typical day like as a global macro hedge fund analyst. Any inputs to fill the gap here? As a broader question, what are the differences among the day-to-day work as analysts in hedge funds of different strategies -- L/S, value investing, quantitative trading, global macro, etc?
29 Dec 2012
Hi, I got into these two gradaute programs: CMU MSCF, LSE MFin and have a hard time to decide for one. I am an European engineering undergrad with internship experiences in consulting, risk, structuring and M&A. No full-time experience so far (full-time defined as entry level analyst position, not internship).
08 Mar 2015
Oh man do we have an interesting week ahead of us. While the Finnish citizenry rejoice and carouse over the True Finns landslide victory, I see three, very powerful and very influential people squirming in their seats; Merkel in Germany, Socrates in Portugal, and the Ben Bernank in the States. For those who don't know, the True Finns is the Finnish Nationalist Party, a populist, anti-immigration and European integration party hell bent on derailing the EU bailouts and drawing lines against southern European laziness.
Totally what I said earlier. "Here in the Nordic nations we draw a line between the decent, hard-working countries of the north, and the easy-going, relaxed southern states"
17 Apr 2011
I was wondering if anybody knows who are some of the most sophisticated players in the Family Office space. My dream job would be running my own family office (I'm not sure you can even call that a job) and I was wondering if there were any good examples of particularly sophisticated family offices out there. Off the top of my head I can think of the Bass brothers back in the day but I was wondering if you guys knew of any other people who mostly manage their own capital with a sophisticated strategy, particularly global macro. Also, how would you go about getting a job at one of these places
09 Nov 2010
I posted this in the Forbes Hedge Fund Top 40 thread but I think it deserves space of its own. This guy took home $40 million last year as an Asia focused global macro fund manager, and started with seed money from Tudor Investment Corp. He talks about a number of things, but the biggest takeaway was probably his answer to how he became so successful. The beginning of his answer was that he genuinely believes that he is extremely lucky, especially with the opportunities he was given from such a young age.
His thoughts on the world are interesting, but
04 Mar 2012
I came across this recently and thought someone might be interested. The interviews are a bit old, but still fun to read I believe. For the mods, I thought about making 3 separate threads but decided it would be a bit annoying, but feel free to divide them if you think it's best. Paul Tudor Jones II
01 Apr 2013
Hello Wall Street Oasis, My career progression needs some sorting out. I welcome any comments for those experienced in the industry to guide me along. I am a junior analyst at a macro hedge fund (800 mil AUM). Not a well known mega fund but still pretty reputable. I get along very well with my bosses. This seems to have translate to the flexibility I have in my job which in short is ... "learn as much you can from us and paper trade to see whether your ideas work". A lot of free play, maybe too much. I have no banking or trading experience prior. My question to this forum is how beneficial is this flexible job scope and how does it compare to other funds. Specifically ... 1. Do other funds have a more structured development program for their analysts?
20 Mar 2015
Hi all, I'm currently interviewing for a few firms in HK. Background as an equity analyst at a l/s asian equity fund, got laid off and decided I didn't want to be an analyst anymore. Long term goal is to be a marketing guy at a HF where I'd get a % of revenue sharing from assets raised, as I'm a Chinese American in Asia and want to leverage my American background rather than compete with the horde of china analysts out here. The main source of capital for Asian hedge funds are still US and European investors and I would prefer to be in a position where I could go on roadshows a few times a
13 Apr 2015
Hi guys - TLDR; For a complete noob to markets / trading, what would you reccomend I start doing to bang out some investment ideas? I'm a trading / finance noob but my mentor asked me to start coming up with trading ideas that he'll go over with me every week to help me learn how to invest. . . . . I applied to speak with a hotshot alum visiting campus next week and was 1 of 3 kids who'll be mentored by him. He's a PM with one of the top 5 mid-sized HFs according to Bloomberg rankings. The particular fund he runs has generated some of the highest returns within their strategy focus for the period since 2008.
10 Oct 2012
Few people on Wall Street have garnered as much respect from the investment community as Stanley Druckenmiller. A master of all markets, his spotless record and daring trades made him an idol for generations. As for the Central Bankers who were on the other side of them, he was the boogeyman. He is a BSD of the highest order. He's also long bonds, betting that the government will actually do the right thing and get serious about the deficit. [quote]"One of the reasons I bought the Treasurys a ways back was I thought [House Budget Chairman Paul] Ryan was serious. I mean I heard some serious
16 May 2011
I keep hearing Global Macro managers talking about good instinct and pattern recognition. What do they mean? They speak in such general terms it's hard to figure out if it's something I'm interested in or may be good at, but it does sound intriguing. Can someone give me some specifics on what they mean? I'd really appreciate it. Thanks As an example of this, I just came across this video where Mike Novogratz, President of Fortress says that good instinct and pattern recognition are the most important skill of a good Global Macro manager.
02 Apr 2012
I haven't heard of any, but I could imagine that if you're say a global macro trader (rates,credit....etc) in a HF and your friend happens to work for some Central Bank/Ministry of Finance in an emerging market/developed economy, you could be making lots of money. I would consider that insider trading.... if you receive non-public information about possible interest rate changes/debt issuance/restructurings/export-import numbers...etc. And who exactly would enforce this? I bet there are some Global Macro HFs out there doing just that.
04 May 2011
It's pretty late but the tragic events in Japan have been running through my mind. First off, my heart goes out to all the Japanese. I've experienced my share of natural disasters but nothing that could even compare to what you are going through now. I've never been there, but over the years where I've met and dealt with the Japanese I can say they are truly good people and I wish them nothing but the best in this time of crisis. There's been a lot of comparison between this and the terrible Kobe earthquake 16 years ago; were like a phoenix, Japan rose from the turmoil stronger and healthier. The Yen rose 18% in a span of 3 months back then, while economic growth was around 3.6% peaking at 5.9% at Q4 of 1996.
13 Mar 2011
I have to complete an assignment given to me in 2 days. I was asked to generate some trade Ideas across asset classes. I would like to have a look at some sample "Global Macro trade Ideas". Since I am new to this I think looking at some sample trade ideas would help me.
16 Jun 2013