As we head into June, all of the qualified teams are wrapping up their final international friendlies before they board their flights for Brazil. There's been a ton of speculation around who will win this year, and I am honestly really excited because of how different this WC feels from many of the former. Many teams have gone through pretty large structural shifts and have deviated from their typical squad selections.
Here are a few predictions recently put out by GS and Danske Bank:
http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/outlook/world-cup-and-economic…
Danske Bank World Cup 2014 Special Research Report
I'm pretty sure that it is general consensus that the US will not advance, however I am interested to see some of the younger guys play, namely Julian Green.
So, what do you guys think? Who will progress? Who will win?
EDIT: Mr Hawking's predictions.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/10860062/World-Cup-2014…
I think Spain can do very well along with Germany. Also think that England could make a deep run this year.
In hindsight, only Germany have played wellish. The rest...
I really like Germany, they were dangerous 4 years ago and now they have a ton of players in their prime.
The only problem I see them having, despite having a bunch of guys that can score goals, is the lack of a true striker. They called Klose up for God's sake, he's 35.
If the Belgians can mature quickly, they're gonna romp some people.
USA will win it all.
so far, so good
Argentina!
So I wasn't going to go (bad timing), but just found round trip from buenos aires to rio for $370 (half of what i've seen before) + can get a game ticket for $150-$250. If I can find a place to crash that isn't too expensive I'm going....
One could have a thoughtful debate about whether or not Brazil is the favorite to win, but giving them a near 50% chance of winning is outrageous in my opinion.
Perhaps Goldman's Brazil business is underperforming and they are hoping to capitalize on this opportunity to bolster their strength in the country.
The fact that they project Iran even getting out of the group stage completely discredits their analysis IMO
50% does seem high. The thing that works in their favour is they are bound to win their group and Spain are bound to win theirs.
With Brazil playing the runner up of this group, it means that one of Netherlands/Aus/Chile will come 2nd, whoever it is, Brazil will likely knock out. (No guarantee but Bra v Ned my moneys on Brazil every single time.)
They then get to play somene from group C or D. That basically means: England/Uruguay/Italy/Colombia/Greece/Japan/IvoryCoast/CostaRica.
Are there any teams in that list that really threaten Brazil? Italy/England on their day maybe. Uruguay's defence has more holes than Swiss cheese and will fall to pieces against Brazil. The rest don't stand a chance.
Anyway - that sees them into the Semi Final, from there it's a lottery. But with such an easy route to the semi-final it's easy to see why they are favourites.
That's a fair analysis. I think it's interesting to look at the retro fit of the Goldman model on the 2010 World Cup (page 7). The r^2 of 0.24 along with Brazil's elimination in quarters, Italy not making it past knockout, and Uruguay making it all the way to semis show me that the sport is far too random for these statistical predictions to have any real meaning.
[quote=GMG]
Uruguay's defence has more holes than Swiss cheese and will fall to pieces against Brazil. Gold
There were 19 world cups so far. Out of those, 8 times the hosts clearly didn't have any hope of a title shot.
Of the 11 remaining World Cups, the host won 6 times, more than 50% of the time.
That's a very small and thus unreliable sample, but the home advantage is pretty powerful. Brazil has one of the worst squads Brazil ever had, but it is still one of the top teams. If previous world cups are any reliable as a predictor, I'd bet strongly on Brazil as well, even though there seem to be a few stronger teams in play.
That said, banks suck at sport predictions. They can't even predict what they would like to predict ( the economy and the stock market). Let alone sports, but those reports are kinda fun nonetheless
Of the big hitters Brazil have the home advantage, that means pressure. IF they hit the ground running (e.g a few good results in the group stage) they will go on to win it.
Spain I'm not so convinced by, Champions League has shown that the tika-taka game has its flaws. On paper though their squad is unbelievable.
England, my dear dear England, are destined to disappoint. Just not good enough. Glen Johnson is a donkey at right back and we lack creativity. Bringing the young guns in may change this but we are the biggest chokers known to man.
Outside chance:
Beligum - They may not challenge this year but I would predict they will be one of the top 3 teams at the next WC.
Fallen angels:
Netherlands - Strong team with the ability to win games, suspect defence though. Van Gaal on the way out so one last chance to win this.
Italy - Always turn up despite being pretty sub-par on paper. They aren't easy to beat but they're in a tough group.
Whatever happens I cannot bloody wait, I know football isn't massive in the US but the UK will be rocking for weeks.
I actually think that England could make a decent run this year. Like you said, lots of young guys who could perform very well or very poorly. I really hope Hodgson plays more of the younger players like: Barkley, Wilshere, Sterling, Sturridge, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Shaw, Llana, etc. Sick of seeing Fat Frank and Rooney, and am very happy at the departure of Cole, Ferdinand and Terry.
The core of Spain's team is getting old and is now past its prime. Don't think they'll take it home this year. My money is on Brazil. Solid squad, playing on home turf.
Belgium is gonna be the dark horse this year. Curtois is gonna be the best GK in the world in a few years. They also have Hazard, Lukaku, Vermaelen, Kompany and a couple of other solid players. I'm excited to see how they will do and expect some upsets from them. I hope my boys from Russia get their shit together this year after derailing in 2012.
Italy is gonna park the bus in front of the goal as usual, hope they don't get to the elimination stage. France is a shadow of what it used to be in 1998, still may make it far. I like the Netherlands but as someone mentioned, defense is shaky. African teams possess a lot of athleticism but tactically they're awful. Ivory Coast and Nigeria may upend some of the teams though.
Germany - You can only make it to the semi finals so many times and lose (Euro Cup included). Hoping for a Germany vs. Brazil final
I don't think Spain will do well this year. I think the Germans will win it this time.
I do think that Brazil clearly is the favorite, but 50% is a bit crazy. Belgium is widely expected to give good performances and I see Ivory Coast as potentially being a surprise. Not a legitimate contender, just a team that will pull results that may not have been expected in the early rounds.
I hope Spain takes it. They have a real team. Not like France who has no actual french playing for them, only a bunch of arabs and africans, lol.
I'll just ignore the racist undertones of this post and point out Cabaye, Ribery, Valbuena, Koscielny, Lloris, Benzema, Debuchy, Giroud
Zidane wasn't even truly French.
Abdel's new username? He went on a whole rant about this in the Euro 2012 thread I started...
Wow, hauntingly similar. That thread was a complete shit show too
Also forgot to mention, believe that Chile could actually make a decent run this year. Chile v Netherlands will be an interesting game.
Brasil for sure!
Wow, everyone in this thread is more treasonous than Snowden.
If USA make it out of this group of death ill be over the moon and it will signify a massive step forward. With that being said, klinsmann's decision of youth over experience when selecting the squad gives me the impression that he views it as highly unlikely they make it through to knockout round and is using this WC as a learning experience and putting in all his chips for Russia. Would rather the US federation hadn't given him that 5 yr extension which basically removes all pressure of the near-term performance of this WC.
My money's on Germany, though I would like to see Messi actually perform well in one of these tournaments. I feel the pressure will get to Brazil, though they'll probably go deep (semis or finals).
Historically, European teams don't do very well on South American soil. I don't know how it affects today's teams, but American teams certainly have the advantage, especially South American teams.
I think Spain (definitely the best midfield at the moment) or Argentina will take it...only if Messi breaks the curse and begins scoring streak! I'm biased, though. I don't want Brazil to win, but they will advance easily in the beginning, anyway.
I'm really sick of European teams winning the World Cups. It's time for an American team to win this year!
I won't risk a penny on England & France going further than 1/4 final.
The big 4 is Brazil, Spain, Germany, Argentina (in this order) imo. Clearly Brazil is the favorite, they're the host, they've a talented, athletic and young team and they haven't won in 2006, 2010 they won't let pass a third consecutive title :D I
32 teams and they give brazil a 50% chance of winning? what a joke, they're squad is not as good as it was 10 years ago. They might reach the semis but I don't believe they'll reach the final.
Spain and Netherlands (the last finalists) have 15% combined of reaching the final? C'mon...
Curious to see what Belgium does
Well, that doesn't mean much since we (Brazilian speaking here) went from 74 to 90 without winning, including there the 82 team that most Brazilians who were old enough at the time think was the best Brazilian team ever.
The general feeling around here is: We'll probably end 1st in our group. Spain or Netherlands will get 1st in group B, BUT Chile is quite a threat, so there is the possibility of facing Chile in the next phase. From there, as said before, the most dangerous teams are England/Uruguay/Italy and maybe Colombia. None of them are playing that well, but Italy is always dangerous, and England does have some kids that may surprise everybody as did the 2010 Germany team, though I honestly haven't seen them playing for more than five minutes.
The quarter finals game that will determine Brazil's opponent in semi will most certainly be Portugal or Germany (hopefully Portugal, because then I'll get to watch Germany vs Argentina with my quarter finals tickets) against, best case scenario, France. In my opinion, that's Portugal/Germany's game.
Regarding semi and final its impossible to say anything, it will depend a lot on the momento each team's got by then.
I obviously want Brazil to win and, if not, just don't want Argentina taking it.
Brazil.France.Spain. Germany & Argentina dangerous. [edit] & Uruguay Netherlands always look solid until they have to work as a team. England quarter finals at best.
Belgium all the way!
For those that name Brazil the resounding favorite, who is supposed to score the goals for this team? I haven't followed football closely for a while, but looking at the squad, Neymar is the top striker and he did not even get into double digits in La Liga this year. The other 3 strikers don't even play in the top tier leagues.
Hulk is still scoring at Zenit (great goal scorer for Porto) but the Ukranian leaague is overlooked. Bernard had a bad season after (some say) choosing money over playing time. He could have gone to Porto, decided to go with Shakhtar. Either way both of these play as winger.
I have no idea what Jo is up to, Brazil has the same problem as Portugal these days... no strikers. But don't be surprised to see Fred score most of the goals. Overall its a good team but not a 50% of winning the world cup team. The choices are also quite doubtful... how do you keep Felipe Luis out? Miranda? Coutinho? Leandro Damiao? And oh those keepers... Good old Dida and Taffarel
Don't be surprised to see an outsider reach the semis
EDIT: Meanwhile Torres keeps doing his thing
Germany is going to struggle this time, this is pretty much what most people are saying in Germany... Lots of issues with injuries and even though most players are in their prime in a career context, not everybody is on top of his game just about now. This might change, as Germany is historically a team that improves siginificantly over the course of the tournament, and to be honest has to change so that they are able to make it through the quarterfinals.
Besides, watch Belgium and Chile..
You guys are drastically underestimating what French can do in Brazil.
Maybe you are drastically overestimating what French can do in Brazil.
Maybe. Maybe not. It would be pretty cool if France and Brazil played against each other in this World Cup.
My fav sleeper team is Belgium. They prob won't win, but they will definitely get out of their group and hopefully upset at least one team.
I don't think Brazil has a 50% chance of winning the WC. This WC has a lot of evenly matched teams and a fair amount of potential underdogs. I think the teams that are realistic contenders are Brazil, Spain, Argentina, Germany, Netherlands, and Italy. Including Italy in that list because when it comes to major international tournaments, they are bloody ruthless. Although, losing Montolivo is a big blow to their midfield, I feel Veratti is more than capable of filling that role (if he keeps his cool). The rest of their squad is pretty decent, although nothing special. I do feel that Balotelli on his day can change the game single-handedly. Brazil lack a deadly striker, Jo is a Man. City reject, while Fred did have a good Confed. Cup but he doesn't have that "extra" factor. They will be looking for goals from Neymar, Oscar, and Hulk. Spain's style is becoming stagnant as we've seen for the past two seasons that teams have figured out Barca. Spain haven't been displaying a "Plan B" and I think that might be their undoing. Their squad is still top notch and more than capable of winning the WC. Not taking Negredo or Llorente might hurt them as Torres has his days and Villa is past his prime. VDB will be expecting his star-studded midfield to shine. Argentina might just have the best attack at the WC. Messi, Higuain, Aguero, Di Maria (who just had an amazing season at Madrid), and Lavezzi to some extent is just really strong. Their midfield and defense is another story, and they will be hoping that their front line can produce enough goals. This is Messi's chance to prove his worth at the international stage and I think he will be hungry after a disappointing season at Barca. Germany will again be a contender, albeit one of the weaker ones. Just as Italy, Germany always comes of age during the WC and will go far this year, but just how far is the question. They are not particularly great in any department as their many striker is Klose who's a great player but at 35, might not be the game changer that they need. Their midfield is filled with spectacular players that are not performing to their best. Ozil and Shweinsteiger have both had poor seasons (some might disagree). Gundagon being injured is a big blow to Germany as he's one of those players that Germany needed in the midfield to provide dynamism. Except for Lahm, their defense isn't anything special either. I think they will be a team decent in all roles, but not great in any, something which I believe just does not win the WC during this day and age.
Dark horses are going to be Belgium, France, and England. Belgium have a stellar squad but it is yet to be seen that they can operate as a unit. Their squad is also quite young and inexperienced. My prediction is they will reach quarters at the furthest. My beloved France again bring a squad filled extremely talented players that have issues working in a team and being consistent. I will be hoping they reach at least the semis but quarters might be the furthest for them as well. If Benzema can stay consistent and Valbuena keeps playing like he has been, their might be a lot of goals for France. Their midfield is quite evenly balanced as well, although not taking Nasri takes away some of the creativity. Defense might be the weakest point as it if filled with good players that are inconsistent, if Koscielny and Sakho can step up, the might juts be able to form a formidable force. England are not great tactically or technically but have a squad filled with players at top clubs. Their style might just be boring enough to cause some upsets but I don't see them beating any of the big boys.
Finals Predictions:
Argentina - Brazil
Winners:
Argentina
Final: Germany vs Brazil Champions: The Germans
I've always liked Argentina, especially that Messi fellow
Any other monkeys going to games? The USMNT is training up the street from my office at the moment.
Brazil to win!
Ok, how is this thread not blowing up right now? The Netherlands just tore Spain a new asshole. RVP with the goal of the tournament so far.
I felt sad watching Spain vs. Netherland.
Iker was terrible. Robben and RVP made Pique and Ramos look like children. The spanish midfield was sorely lacking pace and athleticism. I always thought that they should've started David Villa and brought on Jesus Navas as part of their 23. As soon as Torres came on you knew it was over...
Super Mario.
I am really happy that SUper Mario netted tonight. Otherwise, I was really impress by the young Sterling just 19 years old with a lot of potential.
I slapped myself in the face for thinking Pirlo was "too old" this year.
The amount of Own Goals in this WC is too damn high.
The OG credited to Noel Valladares really should count as a Karim Benzema goal, though. It'll probably be changed after review from FIFA.
Besides that, though, I agree that there have been a lot of OG's so far.
No draws so far and lots of goals.
Yes baby, 4-0.
Pepe is an idiot
Nani is a bigger idiot. So infuriating watching him wasting opportunities after opportunities.
Ochoa with the game of his life between the goalposts...
I think we have a shot at winning the world cup. COME ON TEAM USA!!
http://www.businessinsider.com/zlatan-tmz-interview-2014-6
Costa Rica really shook up Group D; this WC has been amazing so far, but these upsets and blow outs are really screwing up my bracket.
Germany looks to be the strongest team so far IMO. Brazil doesn't cut it and will likely have to play Spain or Chile in the next round, which I think would see them out.
USA v Portugal game will be awesome. Thought USA v Ghana was a little boring for the majority of the game though.
Germany VS Ghana? Saw that?
RIP tiki taka
It's the WC curse.
Wow, Coast Rica. This WC is nuts.
Plus this sets up Uruguay vs Italy in an elimination match next week
I'd be really happy to see the Italians go out.
Chile is doing very well so far. Brazil may have a hard time beating them if they play againt them in quarter final. This Brazilian team hasn't showed us yet that it has the potential to win the trophy. Germany has clearly become the favourite in my opinion. I am still amazed by how easily Chile has been able to destroy the Roja. If they keep playing at this level I can only see Germany taking them out in semif final.
Poor England
GO USA! Excited for the games today...
Russia losing and the U.S. winning is as close to Ukraine winning as I'll get, so I'll take it.
My office bracket has the U.S. taking it all and has pictures of apple pie and Katy Perry. If it ends up being correct, it will be hung up in our new office for all to see. The future is bright.
edit: damnit.
fuck that shit
Portugal with the tying goal on literally the second to last touch of the game....at least we're still alive.
https://vine.co/v/MTlpDYaDh5d
I agree, he had a decent game up till that point. It was really, his fault. So close, would've been such a relief to go through before facing the Germans. Jermaine Jones was very very good tonight though.
The US team performed really well tonight. Should have actually been a win... but at least we showed what we could do. That last assist by Ronaldo though, shows why he is one of the best. Unfortunate conclusion, but it definitely made for a good game to watch
How does Jurgen not use his 3 subs EARLIER in a game in those conditions?!? By the 70th minute, it was clear that the mids were gassed (Zusi, Bradley, etc)... at least he put in Yedlin, but fresh legs at that stage of the game were crucial.
A few things on Bradley since I think he has been getting crushed in the comments section on ESPN by people that are clueless:
He is not to blame for the "missed goal" from point blank range. Anyone who has played knows that in that scenario with the ball coming up high, you don't have time to see where the defender is and you are just trying to keep it down and on net...which is exactly what he did. Just unlucky
Agree that at the end of the game he should not have tried to keep possession by shielding the ball and instead just kicked it out of bounds, but he is not the only one to blame on that goal. It was a beautifully executed run and cross, and I blame Omar and Cameron a lot more than Bradley...if you're going to lose the ball that way, you do it in Portugal's half
Look at his work rate and pass completion percentages before calling him out.
Either way, hoping Thursday works out...
Regarding number 1; it was unlucky but in my mind doesn't change the fact that he should've buried it. While I don't expect Bradley to be putting goals away like Suarez, when you're that level of player and receive those kinds of chances, they should be put away.
The only reason I think that Bradley has been receiving some harsh criticism is that he is expected to be one of US's top players along with Howard and Dempsey, and as of yet, he hasn't lived up to the billing. Honestly though, I think Howard really didn't play well that game. Have no idea what he was doing on the first goal, and his diving save later on was only due to the fact that he completely whiffed at the first attempted block.
All things considered though, great result and a much more entertaining game than the first.
I don't follow soccer but I don't understand why any of the US Defenders didn't do anything in their will to bring down those Portugal players during those last seconds. This game sealed next round so missing the next game would be nothing. Getting a yellow card to prevent them from scoring would have been fine right?
Ronaldo was 1v1 coming down the wing. If the defender steps up to try to take him out there's a good chance he just gets burned, hanging back and trying to contain him was the best option. Any other foul would have to take place in the box, which would have led to a PK and a likely goal anyway
Beasley could have stepped up to close down the space without diving in while his left or center mid recovered to assist. No reason that ball should have been allowed to have been whipped into the box. Also, while Ronaldo demonstrated some pace during the game he was clearly not 100% fit and Beasley has plenty of pace so your scenario of him getting burned was unlikely. At that point we had at least 8 guys behind the ball before dumb ass Bradley got caught taking too many touches and blowing the match.
In all likelihood, we are going to watch USA vs Belgium in the next round. Gonna be interesting
I just want to speak on the USMNT's prospects. I don't know whats going to happen on Thursday. But there is a reason to be optimistic, enough to believe the USA could be looking at a potential run all the way to the round of 8. Assume all standings as they are this morning hold. Upon finishing 2nd in group G we would face the winner of G (Belgium, at the moment), and then after a win here, face the winner of Argentina vs. (Switzerland or Ecuador). If we were to win group G, the outlook on our next two matches seems to be Algeria and then the winner of France v. Nigeria. In both cases we have the some of the weakest of the round of 16 opponents. As for round 8: at best, we face the Swis in the round of 8. At worst, we run up against Messi. Reaching the Semi Finals would require a dream and a prayer.
suarez is unreal
Such an idiot; definitely not playing in the next game now.
I don't see how he's not suspended for the rest of the tournament! Insane.
I read an article somewhere where they said barcelona and real madrid were most probably to buy him out from liverpool soon, and now most probably they gonna pass on him. well that's why you should have some self control
That's the 3rd time he's sunk his teeth into someone, too. He doesn't belong on a pitch no matter how good he is.
Also, that red card on Marchisio was a garbage call by the official. Changed the whole match for the worse.
I tend to agree that the call was soft but studs up over the ball below the knee while close to the ref is asking for trouble. Plus it was an unnecessary challenge on a 50/50 ball that was not in a dangerous area. Foolish by an experienced player. The Italians have themselves to blame as they have been unable to keep clean sheets and have not looked very dangerous in the final third.
Also, Suarez should definitely receive a ban, which is a shame given what a gifted striker he is. How many other guys could come back after a month and dismantle Englands back 4.
FIFA should chew out Suarez for that. Either that or make him play for Hungary.
As a fellow Hungarian I'm offended by that, haha, though it's true
Samaras with the epic dive to get the penalty and advance Greece to the round of 16. I hate teams that play cynical football, hope Costa Rica destroys them
What the hell is wrong with the dude. Biting someone once is insane enough...but a repeat offender...Come on dude.
http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/10984370/portrait-serial-win…
Pretty good profile ESPN did on him before the World Cup that I found
They should make him go to counseling or some shit. His mind is clearly fucked up and he's a danger to other players. And if he does it again, ban him for a year and make his return contingent on full teeth removal.
Trapped in an office with no tv how did this happen to me?
espn3.com - you don't have to enroll or anything, just use online account info from your cable provider
Last week at current job and have been watching games on my computer every day. It's a bit difficult watching simultaneous games since I'm a single screen peon at the moment
Directtv doesn't work with ESPN3... getting dominated.
Cristiano Ronaldo helped the US secure a spot in the round of 16. Pretty terrible game from the Americans today against Germany, but we're advancing, so can't be too mad. Group H is pretty weak so America can realistically get to the quarters, I believe. Belgium is good, but I think America can take them.
Haha, more like Ghana's GK helped us advance -- not that it really made a difference since they would've apparently tied anyways.
not sure what you expected against Germany? was pleased with how the US played at times and even created a few dangerous chances...happy the other game cooperated.
Stats say USA has now over 1% chance of winning entire thing. Anything can happen! :-)
I also like our chances against Belgium.
Couldn't have said it better. Aside from the first 10 minutes when the team's collective sphincters were clenched, the team played very well considering that on paper (and lets be honest - in reality too), Germany is a much better team. Howard played a strong game, midfield wasn't bad. Defense was shaky, but again, dealing with a very high production top tier talent they did ok.
As a German, I'm quite pleased with the outcome. Germany advanced as first, USA with our German coach as second. However, the USA was pretty weak (probably due to the fact there was no need to win) and definitely has to do more if they want to succeed against Belgium. Our team seemed like they could do more, but didn't want to (as seen in the first 20 minutes which were quite strong).
Anyway, Algeria shouldn't be a problem.
I'm also looking forward to Chile - Brazil.
Belgians fly a German flag and speak French. I wouldn't be too worried. They'll probably show up to the game in hockey gear.
Holy shit Germany! Brazil have been poor all tournament; guess the secret's out. Neymar and Thiago Silva wouldn't have made a difference today.
//www.youtube.com/embed/iYdIXRTBXLo
riots tonight blat blat
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