Facebook Search / what will happen to stock price after announcement?

Big announcement from FB coming up in ~1 hour, likely about details of FB search.

Patrick and I were having a discussion about this, and whether or not it will be effective/useful. What are your thoughts? How could they best tailor search for you to want to use it instead of other search engines?

IMO, data is their biggest asset, and if they push more connections with social sites such as yelp, urbanspoon, kayak etc where ppl connect their activity/opinions on those sites with their facebook account, and their data (ie your friends, and friends of friend data) is searchable by you, then there is a TON of potential there.

Obv privacy issues come up again with this so they have to be very careful how they do this..

Predictions on stock price at the end of day? Currently at 31 (11:57 am et)

At what price would you start betting against it? My stock advice guy is betting against it if it gets up to 33...

 

Everyone knows my opinion already. But the only thing I'm worried about is them spewing some bullshit about mobile growth. If it's about Search or (what I think is very unlikely) a phone, I'll be happy. The dynamic of 'Facebook Friends' doesn't lend itself very well to actually coming up with legitimate suggestions for places I want to eat, travel to, etc. If someone has 800 friends and cares about probably 5% of those people, it screws the sample up, and honestly I'm not sure how much someone really wants that targeted bullshit that FB is going to come up with for them. Pisses me off though because you'll see another temporary pop in the price so long as they can pump whatever they're 'building' and people will go with it. Not that the business actually changes at all, especially for the better.

I hate victims who respect their executioners
 

I cant remember the last time I had issues finding something on Google.

"For I am a sinner in the hands of an angry God. Bloody Mary full of vodka, blessed are you among cocktails. Pray for me now and at the hour of my death, which I hope is soon. Amen."
 
WallStreetOasis.com:
duffmt6:
I cant remember the last time I had issues finding something on Google.

with apple trading at ~$489 and FB above $31/sh, I feel like a kid in a candy store.

Explain why AAPL should be hirer though, I seen on Mad Money not even Jim Cramer can recommend it.

 
WallStreetOasis.com:
BlackHat:
Completely non-factor of an announcement. Can't believe they thought that was presser worthy

bought some june 25 puts...no idea how this thing is not tanking yet. 99% of searches for most users on FB will be useless.

Doesn't matter. It's another avenue for them to place ads and to make future user-based ads more specific.
 

K, here's where Zuckerberg says the best is yet to come.

Right now Graph search just focuses on people, photos, interests and places -- more down the line.

Bottom line- instead of having to search the Internet, people can search THEIR internet.

Who does this compete with? Google. No question.

Why search for a restaurant or hotel on Google if you can see where your Facebook friends have gone.

^^ cnbc http://www.cnbc.com/id/100380841

Are we allowed to use K on our cover letters?

 

I don't see how facebook can meet revenue/growth expectation. They don't have anywhere to go to gain new users and their appeal with teens is fading quickly with new technology (SnapChat, Twitter, other crap) coming out all the time. I honestly think their demographic is slowly changing from college kids/teens to adults which will lead to a slow fall.

"Because it's not worth winning if you can't win big!" - Coach Reilly
 
GuidoMane:
I don't see how facebook can meet revenue/growth expectation. They don't have anywhere to go to gain new users and their appeal with teens is fading quickly with new technology (SnapChat, Twitter, other crap) coming out all the time. I honestly think their demographic is slowly changing from college kids/teens to adults which will lead to a slow fall.

They are just overvalued there is no way around it no matter how you look.

 

Also, this logic is horrible:

Why search for a restaurant or hotel on Google if you can see where your Facebook friends have gone. -- > Assuming they haven't interacted with them except on FB aka did not ask "SO HOW WAS YOUR VACATION WHERE DID YOU STAY etc?". aka normal conversation paths people take.

 
blastoise:
Also, this logic is horrible:

Why search for a restaurant or hotel on Google if you can see where your Facebook friends have gone. -- > Assuming they haven't interacted with them except on FB aka did not ask "SO HOW WAS YOUR VACATION WHERE DID YOU STAY etc?". aka normal conversation paths people take.

2 ways that plays out. Either you talk to your friend and they tell you how great the hotel was, in which case you go visit it (and dont need fb)

Or for the other 95% of your friend list: its really creepy if you don't talk to them regularly yet visit the same venues. very stalkerish

 
Fundamentally Undervalued:
atomic:
Just stopped by to say... Is the idea of this really creepy to anyone else?

Maybe I'm just getting too old for this shit.

seconded

thirded...lol

"...the art of good business, is being a good middle man, putting people togeather. It's all about honor and respect."
 
atomic:
Just stopped by to say... Is the idea of this really creepy to anyone else?

Maybe I'm just getting too old for this shit.

Yea man, every new feature they put out lately is either a creepy new way to stalk someone or a way to push more ads and remove actual content. The appeal of Facebook is dying, at least for younger adults. People don't use it as the only way to communicate via social network anymore, they update lest, post a whole lot less. I personally used to use it a lot, but now its just when I get a notification or when I need to lurk a girls pictures to confirm shes attractive. It's only growth is with adults who are always the last to the game, I know this because my mom now has a Facebook and her old friends are constantly posting things.
 
Best Response

Reading some of the comments people have been making about the announcement around the Internet... I'm baffled by the inability of people to think past the obvious smoke and mirrors that you get from any company pushing their new products/developments. People talking about this as being "enormous" and (my favorite comment so far) "too sophisticated for the average investor to understand... so price won't pop for a couple of days" are the reason why Facebook isn't valued properly. Either people feel they need Facebook to succeed in order to feel like entrepreneurship is still alive and that the tech sector is still on fire, or we really are as retarded as we sound... but if we don't close under $30 today, I'm loading up puts at the bell again. Utterly embarrassing by everyone.

I hate victims who respect their executioners
 
BlackHat:
Reading some of the comments people have been making about the announcement around the Internet... I'm baffled by the inability of people to think past the obvious smoke and mirrors that you get from any company pushing their new products/developments. People talking about this as being "enormous" and (my favorite comment so far) "too sophisticated for the average investor to understand... so price won't pop for a couple of days" are the reason why Facebook isn't valued properly. Either people feel they need Facebook to succeed in order to feel like entrepreneurship is still alive and that the tech sector is still on fire, or we really are as retarded as we sound... but if we don't close under $30 today, I'm loading up puts at the bell again. Utterly embarrassing by everyone.

Bringing the heat.

 

They just addressed some of my privacy concerns. Still, assuming Facebook really chooses to give you complete control over what's searchable, I foresee most people just making their profiles super private and eliminating any and all utility (which is already limited to begin with) associated with the 'Graph Search' product. Yelp is down 6%. Don't foresee this hurting them in any way, shape, or form.

Re: BlackHat's point. Dude, you're just way too Wall Street to understand how visionary all this is, man -- You're all about quarterly earnings and . If you assume a 45-year time horizon, then this shit's about to explode...

But, seriously, you nailed it.

 

"I'm watching the live blog and anybody who doesn't think this is a threat to Google doesn't understand search. In a nutshell, this is the intelligent search model that Google attempted, and have largely failed with, in their Knowledge Graph technology. The journalists may not grasp the distinction, but I can assure you there are sweaty foreheads at Google today. Frankly, this is more than I expected in today's presser. Enormous monetization potential. Once the full potential of this search platform bubbles up from the wonks to the hedge fund managers, the next stage of the rocket will be lit."

HAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHA

 

Not going to be useful. I think FB thinks bundling data from friends will give more targeted ad revenue. Sadly, average user age will trend down eventually, and mobile FB access will be more common. Thus, other sources of search will be more relevant. I think its a good idea but lacks the bottom line implications that they think it will have.

PE is the new black.
 

MSFT got a nice pop off this, considering Bing was basically useless and losing money before this deal i'm interested to see how this is going to affect Microsoft going forward

"I must create a system or be enslaved by another man's." William Blake
 

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