So you guys ready for a 2nd Obama term?
It looks like it's over, guys. Obama will win the election by a small but comfortable margin on Tuesday.
- Romney's momentum after his first debate was halted by Obama's dominating performances in the other two debates.
- Obama has a firewall in Ohio: popularity of auto bailout, strong labor union presence, superior ground game, Romney's failure to relate to white working class voters in the state.
- Obama has NEVER not led in the electoral college in the various polls.
- Hurricane Sandy has been a huge boost, and Obama got insanely lucky with its timing. His good job managing it is pumping up his numbers. And Chris Christie's lavish praise of the president certainly did not hurt.
- Today's jobs number was pretty solid. It will only help Obama going into the weekend.
Prediction: Obama wins about 51% of the popular vote and around 300 electoral votes. The Republican Party will descend into utter chaos, reminiscent of the Whig Party during the 1850's.
Yeah, wonderfully unbiased assertion of things hahaha.
Unemployment ticked up. The Hurricane and Obama/Christie is big in the Northeast. Go look at local papers in Ohio, Nevada and other swing states and the hurricane is not big news.
Obama and Romney essentially tied in the second debate and Obama won the third.
I'll agree that Obama might win and it will be close either way, but this post just reeks of bias and hype.
I'm a Romney supporter, but i'm calling it the way i see it. First, the economy added 175,000 jobs, way above consensus. Second, although the hurricane affected the northeast, Americans did get to see Obama doing a good job and staying above the political fray. Those types of impressions matter. Third, Obama has consistently led in Ohio, and it's very unlikely that Romney could overcome that difference by Tuesday. If Romney can't win Ohio, his paths are some combination of Wisconsin+Iowa/Nevada or win one of Michigan or Pennsylvania. You really think that's gonna happen? The latter 2 states have not gone for a republican since Bush Sr. in 1988.
Turn out. Romney leads among high propensity voters. Obama leads among low propensity voters. If the weather is crappy, if people get busy, whatever, then those polls won't mean anything.
Not saying this is going to happen, just saying that the polls are very, very close and having a lead among people who will vote rain or shine is important.
It really depends on whether Ohio State, UM, or Penn State football wins this weekend.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/10/how_th…
"Economists Andrew Healy, Neil Malhotra, and Cecilia Mo make this argument in a fascinating article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science. They examined whether the outcomes of college football games on the eve of elections for presidents, senators, and governors affected the choices voters made. They found that a win by the local team, in the week before an election, raises the vote going to the incumbent by around 1.5 percentage points. When it comes to the 20 highest attendance teams—big athletic programs like the University of Michigan, Oklahoma, and Southern Cal—a victory on the eve of an election pushes the vote for the incumbent up by 3 percentage points. That’s a lot of votes, certainly more than the margin of victory in a tight race. And these results aren’t based on just a handful of games or political seasons; the data were taken from 62 big-time college teams from 1964 to 2008."
Given OSU plays the Illinois and Penn State plays Purdue, Obama is probably going to get a bump from home team wins.
Obama added net .1% to the unemployment rate in the last four years, so by 2016, we should be at an even 8%.
Who I want to win: Romney Who my ideal candidate is: Ron Paul Who I think is going to win, realistically: 50.1% Obama vs 49.9% Romney
Me too, except I'd go for Gary Johnson as the Libertarian pick - not quite as loony as Ron Paul.
saying it again, obama guaranteed.
thinking about 4 more years of obama severely raises my blood pressure.
I want Romney to win, but I'm bracing for an Obama victory. It's just too close to call right now, I'm excited to see it unfold.
My hope is that Romney can grab PA due to Sandy affecting the (more liberal) eastern part of the state. If you've got flood damage, you aren't thinking about going to the polls. Admittedly, I think the above is a long shot.
It is close enough that the race depends on turnout, and Democrat turnout hinges upon how scared they are of Romney. The GOP will turn out because they hate Obama, even if they are ambivalent about Romney. Romney is one of the most moderate Republican politicians today. He is close to Obama on most issues.
Under ordinary conditions, Democrat turnout would be low. But Obama's ad campaign has portrayed him as out to ban birth control, send jobs overseas, etc. So we will see how effective those ads have been on Tuesday.
Lol'd are you serious? Check the GOP platform
Depends on definition of Moderate. If 40% of the country is right wing, 20% is left wing and 40% in the "middle" than an American "moderate" is obviously going to be massively right wing in comparison to what we see in 99% of other countries where the lib/con split might be 30/30 (read Europe).
Are we talking Governor Mitt, Primary Mitt, or presidential Mitt? Primary Mitt was scary - but the primary process does force candidates to pander to the base. It was either "pander, pivot" or open the possibility of a Santorum win - I prefer the former.
You can also compare Obama's 2008 platform vs. how he has governed.He appeared very liberal on paper, but has done little on social issues and has all but openly embraced neoconservative foreign policy.
Way I see it, America is pretty much screwed either way. Republicans won't work with Democrats, and Democrats won't work with Republicans. Regardless of who wins there's definitely going to be more of the same (AKA gridlock), and we'll just continue to coast on with huge deficits until reality forces us to make some hard choices (AKA raise taxes and/or cut spending). Then we'll really see what this country is made of. Until then, it's all political theatre. Personally, I'd rather see more cutting and less tax increases, which is why I'm more for Romney, but honestly one or the other but probably both is coming sooner or later.
An Obama win merely tells me which way we're going to go. (Hint: it's tax hikes, and not just on the rich but everyone, they can't tax them enough to pay for what they (Democrats) want to implement/keep in place.)
Obama is winning. Come to terms with that now...
West Coast Rainmaker makes a good point. People in New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, etc. don't even have gas to drive to the polls, so that's good. I just wish Sandy hit the East coast on Monday.
Sandy actually helped obama in the polls; i'm guessing over the weekend the sandy "bump" will dissipate.
Neocons never evolve. "We lost the White House? The electorate must want more war!"
But I still support establishment Republicans; I'd get kicked out of my family if I didn't. Plus, it's a lot more fun to be completely ignorant of reality.
my hope is that romney wins and he does not do 90% of the shit he's spilled during campaigning. he puts on a PE hat and goes to work on america (and naturally, the world).
realistically, i think Obama wins, mainly because of the things Romney has against that he has no control of (being rich and mormon)
The only thing that matters in each election is white turnout vs black turnout. National elections are always divided among racial lines.
NYS and NJ are solid Democrat. Just give Obama the states and don't bother voting at all.
According to the market, Sandy seems to have helped Obama (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_PRES12_WTA.cfm). Also, isn't there a general tendency for people to go with the incumbent if they are uncertain?
8 years of Bush, followed by 8 years of Obama. This is just too much to handle.
I think Romney has a lot better chance than anyone is giving him. Everyone is acting as if the election is over.
You're saying this to the wrong audience.
As an aside, Obama is in Madison today for a second time this campaign season. It's crazy that he's here the day before the election.
Police are outside my building, all doors are locked (Including the ones to get in), I go up the elevator to my floor and there are cops in the conference room. Not allowed to open the blinds to look outside.
I'd take a picture for you guys but I don't want to be sniped!
Edit: I'd actually be surprised if Obama won Wisconsin. It's easy to be fooled in the Madison area; this rally certainly has a great turnout. But I see the Walker election as a bellwether of the state's sentiments which, combined with Paul Ryan being from WI, indicates that the state is going to vote Republican.
I just don't think it's possible that Scott Walker is re-elected and then Obama wins WI in such a short time period. Makes no sense.
The latest and final CNN poll has Obama and Romney tied at 48 with a Democrat +11 sample and Romney winning independents by 18 points. Virtually all polls, national and swing state, have Romney winning independents by 7+ points. That's the only part of the poll you need to look at. If Romney wins independents by 7 or more points the election is over. Realistically you're looking at D/R+0 turnout margin, which means that Romney is probably a lock to win it all (IF the polling data is correct).
State polls still heavily favor Obama, which is what matters. There's no way Romney wins either OH or PA, in which case he can't get to 270 electoral votes. And ultimately that's the ball game, not the national popular vote.
Ok, you need to read what I said. I said virtually every swing state poll has D+7-11 turnout models, which are patently absurd. Ohio and PA are virtually tied with D+8 models and Romney winning by 7+ among independents. I mean, it's silly to argue about this--we'll find out tomorrow--but the fact is this race is far from over. Romney is winning independents in VA, OH, WI and PA by huge margins. IF the polls are correct, it would take historically high Democrat turnout and historically low Republican turnout for the math to be overcome by Obama.
"In the world nothing can be said to be certain except death and taxes" -Benjamin Franklin
No matter what happens today, I'm actually super interested in seeing the statistical analysis.
There are a series of contradictions here in the pre-election predictions:
1) On one hand, the national polls (well, Gallup and Rasmussen, 2 of the best) had Romney ahead in their final polls by a single point. On the other hand, you had several of the less reputable ones (CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal) with it either tied or Obama ahead or tied but with internal numbers stacked heavily in the Dems' favor (e.g. CNN had D+11), but the consensus among a dozen or so polls is Obama +1 in all those polls.
2) Similar thing at the state level. For example, Obama ahead in almost all the polls in Ohio, but looking at the sampling of D+8 or higher and your can't help but think that a 3 point Obama advantage will not necessarily show up on election day. The early voting numbers were released from Ohio. The Obama counties in 2008 are down 4% in early voting and the McCain counties in 2008 are up 14%. In Ohio when it was even R-D in 2004 and D+8 in 2008, one has to assume you're looking at D+3 AT BEST in Ohio. If that's the case, then all of the polls are off.
3) You've got intrade trading around 71-75% Obama, meaning the people putting money down overwhelmingly think Obama is going to win it today. Nate Silver has called this one for Obama, and solidly. On the other hand, 40-year pros in Michael Barone, George Will, Dick Morris and Karl Rove are calling Romney in an electoral college blowout, basing it on the analysis in #2. Dick Morris on Monday night basically staked his reputation on it.
I'm also interested to see if anecdotal information/observation is helpful in determining outcome. I'm in Virginia and the Romney ground game for the last 1-2 months has appeared superior--far more Romney signs and bumper stickers than in 2008 for McCain, and more than Obama in 2012. I've also heard anecdotal info from the Virginia polls where friends/family in GOP areas are reporting HUGE turnout, far exceeding 2008.
In Wisconsin, the polls moved to about even or Obama +1-2 there. But after the debacle in July that had an even recall election where Republicans won by 6, one has to think that Wisconsin has to be extremely close.
At the end of the day, as a Republican, what gives me the worst outlook is that the collective polls are almost never as wrong as they would need to be for Romney to win and all the markets--not just intrade--are tilted heavily in favor of Obama. I think the x-factor is two-fold: 1) wide usage of cell phones, which has hurt the accuracy of all polls in the last few years and 2) turn-out model assumptions. If the markets are going based on the consensus it's possible that the average better isn't looking at turnout models in the polls.
My head says Romney wins today, but my gut says Obama (because I don't think the collective polls can really be THAT wrong nor the betting markets). But when I weigh the preponderance of the evidence the numbers tell me Romney wins big. We'll have to see.
karl rove is a political expert now?
Umm, yes...Rove engineered Bush to 2 blowout victories in Texas gubernatorial races and to 2 Presidential victories and is a paid consultant to Fox News. He's been deadly accurate in 2008, 2009, and 2010 predictions as well as his predictions on Wisconsin recall. This doesn't mean he's the perfect expert, but he's an expert betting his reputation on his predictions.
That's actually kind of the point--it's the dichotomy and contradiction of this season's predictions.
To be fair though, Rove grossly overestimated the margin of Bush's victory in 2000 and 2004 and totally missed the mark on the 2006 midterm elections. But yes, he's a skilled politico who knows what he's talking about.
I hope you're right on Romney. I badly want him to win, and I too have questions about the state polls assuming such a high dem turnout. But it would be a historical first if virtually every single poll gets it wrong right before the election. So yeah, my head wants to say romney, but i'm just not seeing it right now.
Regardless of who wins, I will be surprised if Romney doesn't win Wisconsin. They elected Walker not once, but twice and Paul Ryan is on the ticket.
I have $4k on Obama to win. I want Romney to win.
Romney's policies will likely be better for the success of the US economy on a 40 year timescale. No low skill immigration, understanding the extremely high importance of Chinese intellectual property theft, etc.
Romney also has a much high working level of knowledge in regards to the economy. He has an outstanding track record of leadership in a variety of environments (far higher than Obama). Also, the supreme court - which on issues like affirmative action conservative thought processes are the way to go.
Out of curiosity, purely as a case study, when did you place your $4,000 bet (or was it over time?) and what were the factors that caused you to bet the way you're betting? Was it the national polls, state polls, analyst talking heads? Did you look at poll internals and discriminate based on quality? Just curious. I've always wondered what the smart money is using.
I bet prior to the 1st debate. I've always felt Romney is a intelligent highly effective leader/manager but that Obama had a built in advantage due to the auto bailout. I also felt Romney was at a significant disadvantage due to his private equity experience (as opposed to being a non-finance based wealthy person). And it was always highly obvious that Ohio was going to be the key from FiveThirtyEight.
People are talking about this gridlock - get used to it. The days of non-partisan government is over.
Yes. I also wouldn't have bet if I was pro-Obama. It's much easier to bet when you're hedging. Then it's just a matter of bet size.
Exit polls look awful for Romney.
Obama will win re-election. No doubt about it.
I'm really going to try not to be a Romney homer, but exit polls are meaningless. They overstated Kerry's margin by 6 points in 2004 (and predicted a Kerry win) and were so bad in 2008 that the organization conducting the exit polls never released the details on accuracy. It also under predicted Scott Walker's July victory completely wrong--had a tied race and Walker won by 6.
Right now the polls show a dead heat in Ohio and Iowa. That's what matters.
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