Grateful debt

MARKETS

• Markets: Stocks tumbled the most in weeks as rising COVID-19 cases in the U.S. threaten to slow the economic recovery. Travel and tourism-related companies got especially thwacked.
• 2020: A new New York Times/Siena College poll found that Joe Biden leads President Trump by 14 points nationally.

GOVERNMENT

On the Whole, Global Governments Are in the Hole

In the past few months, an unstoppable force (massive government spending) has hit an immovable object (massive declines in government revenues).

The result? Historic government debt, according to a new report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which says we’re approaching public debt levels not seen since World War II.

That’s a worrisome milestone

The IMF predicts global public debt will surpass 100% of GDP for the first time ever this year. It estimates the debt load will increase almost 19 percentage points over last year, a much bigger jump than the one that followed the 2008 financial crisis.

In the U.S., we’re running up an especially lengthy tab without having the income to show for it—the IMF said the U.S. budget deficit will reach nearly 24% of GDP this year.

• While we’re on the subject...the report also revised previous doom-and-gloom economic forecasts for the doomier and gloomier. It expects global GDP to decline 4.9% this year and U.S. GDP to slide 8%.
• The IMF is not team "V-shaped recovery."

So what do we do?

The IMF advised governments to keep the relief funds flowing, despite the scary debt numbers. “While rising debt is not a free lunch, that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be buying lunch for everyone right now,” said Harvard economist and double negative over-user Kenneth Rogoff.

But the IMF also added that governments could try to curb tax avoidance, broaden tax bases, and potentially make their tax systems more progressive.

Bottom line: Countries that control their own currency, like the U.S., are at an advantage when it comes to managing debt; the money printers at the Fed can always make sure the federal government is able to borrow.

AUTO

There Really Is Something Bout a Truck

Whatever it is, you can witness it tonight at 8pm ET. That’s when Ford will reveal the redesigned F-150 it's been hyping for months.

Lest you think, “sweet, new truck”...agreed, but it’s much more than that. The F-150 has been the U.S.’ best-selling vehicle for decades. As for the broader F-Series family, here are some nuts truck stats:

• In a study commissioned by Ford, Boston Consulting Group found the F-Series made about $42 billion in revenue last year, not far behind the iPhone's $55 billion in revenue.
• The F-Series generated more revenue in 2019 than the MLB, NHL, NFL, and NBA combined.
• On its own, the F-Series would be a Fortune 100 company larger than McDonald’s, Nike, Coca-Cola, and Starbucks in terms of revenue.

In fact, car types don’t argue over whether the F-Series is the sales leader, they fight over how long it’s been the leader.

Bottom line: Like most of the biz world outside Silicon Valley, Ford needs a W-150 right now as it tries to pay down debt racked up during the pandemic. Everything's riding on this truck.

LEGAL

Bayer Just Wants to Settle Down

Yesterday, life sciences giant Bayer started to crawl out of its Himalayan-sized mountain of legal trouble. It agreed to pay over $10 billion to settle an estimated 125,000 filed and unfiled claims over Roundup, the weedkiller Bayer inherited when it bought Monsanto.

The backstory: Bayer acquired Monsanto for $63 billion in June 2018, and the lawsuits, which claimed that Roundup’s key ingredient, glyphosate, caused non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, came fast and furious. Over the next two years, Bayer suffered a series of courtroom losses that led to headlines like, "How Bayer-Monsanto Became One of the Worst Corporate Deals—in 12 Charts."

• Bayer has said repeatedly that Roundup is safe, and the settlement included no admission of liability or wrongdoing.

Looking ahead...Bayer isn’t out of the weed-free woods. There are still at least 25,000 unresolved claims over Roundup, which is the main reason why it's set aside $1.25 billion for future litigation.

FITNESS

CrossFit Cuts Glassman Out for Good

Former CrossFit CEO Greg Glassman is selling the company he founded after a laundry list of allegations surfaced over his past conduct.

The laundry list

• On June 6, Glassman tweeted an offensive remark regarding the death of George Floyd, prompting some gym owners and major sponsor Reebok to renounce their ties to the organization, and eventually led to Glassman stepping down as CEO.
• Then, a NYT article on June 20 exposed a persistent culture of “routine and rampant sexual harassment” within the organization, especially from Glassman himself. Glassman denied the allegations.

What happens now?
Glassman intends to sell CrossFit to Eric Roza, the former senior VP of Oracle Data Cloud and the owner of a CrossFit gym in Boulder, CO.

• “My view is simple: Racism and sexism are abhorrent and will not be tolerated in CrossFit,” wrote Roza.

Bottom line: The financial terms of the deal haven't been disclosed, but by all accounts Roza is taking over a hobbled CrossFit brand—the company has been forced to downsize, cutting 65 employees over the past two years as it’s shifted its messaging away from competition to focus on health initiatives.

SPORTS

Oh No, Novak

The No. 1 ranked tennis player in the world, Novak Djokovic, tested positive for COVID-19 on Tuesday after he hosted a charity tennis tournament in the Croatian town of Zadar.

• According to Djokovic’s Twitter the event was an effort to celebrate improving health conditions and “unite people for philanthropic reasons.”
• Two things that aren't a good idea right now: uniting and celebrating.

A small tennis tournament has major implications

• Politics: Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković attended the tournament and spoke briefly with Djokovic. Now Plenković faces scrutiny for refusing to isolate himself. “He’ll lose votes. The only question is how many,” Zarko Puhovski, a political science professor at the University of Zagreb, told Bloomberg.
• Tourism: Faced with a rising number of cases, Croatia announced yesterday it was imposing border restrictions on neighboring countries, further delaying the rebound of tourism, the most important sector of the Croatian economy.

Bottom line: A number of high profile players have claimed that Djoker’s actions could derail the sport’s return. “Some people have said maybe this has put the U.S. Open in doubt—which it may well do,’’ said British tennis star Andy Murray.

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

• New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut will require visitors from coronavirus hotspots to quarantine for 14 days upon entering their states.
• Apple is re-closing seven stores in the Houston area because of coronavirus spikes. Houston’s hospitals are nearing capacity.
• GNC has filed for bankruptcy and plans to close between 800 and 1,200 locations.
• Dozens of women have recently spoken out on social media about sexual misconduct in the videogame industry, Bloomberg reports.
• Olympus is selling its camera business.

MARATHON TRIVIA

The NYC marathon, the world's largest, has been canceled this year due to the coronavirus. But at least this gives us an opportunity to ask you a little bit of marathon trivia.

The question: The current Olympic record for the men’s marathon was set by Samuel Wanjiru in 2008 with a time of 2:06:32. What was the winning time for the first Olympic marathon in 1896? (FYI, the distance was only 25 miles, compared to 26.2 today).

MARATHON TRIVIA ANSWER