Senior Housing Outlook for 2020 and Beyond
Some comments and questions on senior housing for those interested:
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Is there a go-to source for monitoring occupancy and new build?
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The consensus story right now seems to be that there was overbuilding the last few years and that has pushed occupancy down. But now that everyone knows this, the new permits/builds have slowed in the last ~3 quarters and occupancy should rise again.
Thoughts? Sounds to me like rational behavior all around; people saw the demographic trends favoring higher occupancy coming down the pike. So they built aggressively, and caused some short term pain that should now be alleviated as demand catches up to supply.
Pretty much an open forum on the topic, would love to hear what WSO RE crowd thinks. Thanks.
NIC MAP is the industry standard
I no longer have access to 1 so I’m not going to be of much use there. If you get access to NIC you can look at the data and confirm or deny your thoughts. Thought process is sound though.
Agree that NIC MAP is industry standard. Vision LTC can provide good info on construction pipeline but does not have much in way of occupancy data.
Yes that's pretty much accurate at a macro-level. In particular for assisted living & memory care there was a huge influx of supply of over the last few years that pushed occupancy levels to basically record lows, but it seems that the market sentiment is that occupancy bottomed out during 2019 and should be ticking upwards this year due in part to a slowdown in construction activity over the last 12-18 months. While 2020 should be a step in the right direction, I still think occupancy growth will be fairly gradual and 2021/2022 is when things will start to really kick into gear and the industry will get back to healthy stabilized occupancy levels.
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