Iraqi Dinar (IQD)

is the official currency of Iraq

The Iraqi Dinar is the official currency of Iraq. It is issued by the Central Bank Of Iraq and is currently subdivided into 1000 files even if inflation has made them obsolete since 1990. As of 2022, the exchange rate between the US Dollar and Iraqi Dinar stands at US$1= 1462.5 dinars.

Iraqi Dinar Iqd

The Iraqi currency came into circulation on April 1, 1932, replacing the Indian rupee, which was previously the official currency during the British occupation of Iraq in world war I, at a rate of 1 dinar = 11 Indian rupees.

Later, the Dinar was fixed at par with the British Pound until 1959, then fixed to the US Dollar at one dinar= 2.8 dollars.

Following the Gulf War in 1991, UN sanctions implied that new, inferior quality banknotes were printed in large quantities, resulting in a loss in value for the Dinar. 

The previous issue remained in circulation and became known as the Swiss Dinar. The latter remained in circulation in the Kurdish region of Iraq.

The new (convertible) IQD came into circulation on October 15, 2003, eventually replacing all the old Dinar and Swiss dinar banknotes that were no longer legal tender. 

The freshly released Banknotes were similar to the Swiss Dinar, with added security features to protect against counterfeiting.

The banknotes were then experiencing rising demand by overseas investors expecting the currency to increase in value as Iraq's economy started showing signs of recovery.

As we have seen, before 2003, the IQD fell sharply in the parallel market against the dollar due to the ongoing wars and subsequent economic blockades. 

Nevertheless, after the central bank's independence in 2003, there has been a rising value of the Dinar, which became relatively stable against the dollar.

The Scam

The dinar investment opportunity fraud has been around for a while and has recently become more widespread. This fake opportunity is displayed as a way to profit from a nearly worthless IQD that promises to appreciate in the future.

Scammers argue that millions of dollars in profits are virtually guaranteed if an investor buys the dinars at today's values (1000 dinars to 1 US Dollar) and later converts the dinars back for dollars later in time once the dinar exchange rate has appreciated.

Below are some fundamental problems associated with the dinar scam that potential buyers should consider before investing in one of the most unstable currency markets in the world.

1. Dinars are sold on misleading hype

The potential value of an investment in dinars is usually displayed with reference to what happened to the Kuwaiti Dinars after the Gulf War and the German Deutschmark following World War 2. 

These could be suitable examples, except that none of them was a free-floating currency at the time. Their value was mostly a function of policy making and currency management, unlike the Dinar. 

Moreover, no rational investor would make an investment decision solely based on past data (more than 60 years past).

An economy such as Iraq is more prone to experience a currency crash or international devaluation as compared to drastic reflation.

2. Liquidity

There is currently no active market for dinars. While it is possible to buy them, selling them is not always a straightforward procedure. Several surveys from dealers evinced that the difference between what an individual can buy dinars for and what he can sell them for stood around 20%.

It simply means that the Dinar will need to appreciate by at least 20% before it can be sold back at break even. It's essential to point out that ever since the new Dinar was introduced after the US invasion, it has only appreciated about 23% overall.


3. Inflation

The Iraqi Central Bank reports inflation rates ranging from -4% to +8%. However, in an instance whereby the government and economy become more unstable than they are present, those inflation rates could skyrocket. 

This phenomenon can trigger hyperinflation, which eventually shrinks the value of a hard currency.

Future Prediction for Iraqi Dinar 2022 and 2025

Based on the future predictions of the Dinar, it's easier to plan how to buy the Dinar for those interested. Below are some forecasts and analyses that investors can look into before investing.

1. Higher Oil Prices

The value of Iraq's currency highly depends on its oil industry. The good news is that the forecast for Iraq's oil prices in 2022 and further is higher than the estimates for 2020. If those predictions materialize, it will boost the IQD's value in the international market.

2. Potential Oil Reserves

Iraq's economy is experiencing strong growth due to its prominent oil industry. The country is yet to leverage its oil reserves which require exploration. These potential reserves directly impact a probable increase in the value of the Iraqi Dinar.

Extracting Petrol

It is also noteworthy that an array of international companies such as Shell, Exxon Mobil, and Total are ready to invest in Iraq's gas and oil resources.

Iraq is in a favorable position to attract several investors worldwide as long as it keeps unlocking its oil resources. Even today, Iraq is a vital Petroleum exporter to various countries.

The Iraqi Dinar's future predictions reveal a rise in value when the country expands its potential oil sites. Historical patterns also show the immense prospect of Iraq positioning itself as an international energy super-provider. 

All these factors can help to raise the value of the Dinar in the coming years.

3. More Reforms

The Iraqi government plans to introduce additional reforms to improve its economy. Successful implementation of these reforms will likely lead to an increase in the value of the Iraqi Dinar.

Reforms primarily focus on Iraq's gas, electricity and oil sectors. Those reforms are expected to yield positive outcomes within the next three or five years. The reforms also suggest a boost in Iraq's oil production following the end of the current OPEC + pact.

The pact ends in April 2022. An increase in oil production in Iraq after this period will automatically increase the Iraqi Dinar's value.



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Researched and authored by Alvin Dookhony | LinkedIn

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