Mubarak's Billions
For those of you guys who don't recall or haven't seen Brewster's Millions starring Richard Pryor, it was an 80's comedy about a Minor Leaguer who stands to inherit a $300 million fortune, as long as he can find a way to spend $30 million in 30 days.
For some strange reason I cannot stop thinking about that movie as the Hosni Mubarak saga unfolds. Even though assets believed to be in the range of $57 billion dollars have been seized. It will be both difficult to prove they belong to Mubarak and keep them out of his pockets once he's finally gone from the Egyptian political scene.
Rumors have swirled that Hosni Mubarak's personal stash is in the neighborhood of $70 billion while the entire Egyptian GDP not reaching the $190 billion mark!
As we've done a lot of discussing on the subject I think it now a good time to move on to the financier relevant aspect of this story.
Is the Fix in Play?
To get his $300 million Montgomery Brewster had to spend, spend, spend and got to learn the typical Hollywood lesson by the end of the film. Mubarak stands to get his billions of ransom money, as well...if he follows the rules. What will we learn from it?
Now that Hosni's leaving the scene I want to get a pulse on how you guys feel about what may or may not have gone on behind the scenes.
Did the U.S. government negotiate a deal with Mubarak, like Monty Brewster's long lost uncle did via video will? We do after all, have the ability to freeze assets worldwide...
Or...
More importantly...
Is this a situation every one of us current and future upper tax bracket types should be paying very close attention to?
Namely, Switzerland is the reported home to over $150 billion of stolen wealth. There are many bloody secrets and evils buried beneath those beautiful ski slopes. Even the Swiss flag makes me think of some inappropriate Red Cross/Blood Money references.
As the Bradley Birkenfeld fiasco showed last year, Swiss banking authorities are willing to do just about anything not to go down this dark alley.
The problem is that, you can't just let Mubarak skate with all that money... can you?
But if all of Hosni's billions are taken away, what dark secrets will soon have to be dug up in the aftermath? If his assets can be seized, how wide does Pandora's box open?
Switzerland has long existed as the home (not just in body, but in mind) of the place you bury your money. For finance guys from the no-name BB VP to Mark Rich, it has always been a safe haven.
The Hosni Mubarak situation threatens to blow the lid of Swiss banking and the entire notion of off-shore hideaways for good.
In a lot of ways, I feel like I am in the theater waiting for the curtain to go up.
How will the drama play out?
Do we get a Hollywood ending?
Is one even possible here?
Or...does the bad guy ride off into the sunset?
+1 for being the only person to ask this question. Every other wanna be political hack is still debating Obama's response.
Here's what the deal is: 1. Robert Gates called Mubarak and said: you have one of two futures, Saddam Hussein or Pervez Musharraf. You have fifteen minutes. Call me :) 2. That's a LOT of fucking money, a lot of it ours, I don't forsee him walking away with it. Shit, I'm liable to hunt his ass down for that type of loot.....any ex military / wise guys here want a cut of 70 BILLION FUCKING DOLLARS? Just kidding....no I'm not....just kidding....no. Really, I'm seriously considering it. 3. As for the Swiss: they are enabling this shit to continue. I put this in the same category as stolen Nazi art - it's not yours, it was stolen, give it back. End of story. You can start running a legitimate business or we'll shut you down....and barring that otherwise turn your life into a living hell. Besides, Singapore is a better place to hide stuff now, and maybe China in the not too distant future. 4. This Egypt thing has opened the fucking mother load can of worms on so many levels, and I thing you guys hit the nail on the head in Episode 13: Every Government on earth is shaking in their fucking boots right now. 5. 70 FUCKING BILLION DOLLARS....saying that again for dramatic purposes.
6. Seriously, that type of money would change the entire face of that country. Hell, cut everyone a check for a few bucks and open some more hooka bars to stimulate tourism. Return some of it to us. Reinvest the rest. 7. I'm not so sure they're bothering to hold themselves to the constitution. It's suspended for the next few months, the military runs things [hi, we fund them, who's running what here?], and obviously it wasn't taken seriously to begin with.....why not take it as a chance to rewrite it 8. On a personal note, my family's side business is MAKING A KILLING because of this, so thank you Egypt, long live your freedom, and please....you were once the cradle of civlization, please redeem yourselves. 9. 70 FUCKING BILLION DOLLARS. What is the $70B lifestyle?
really midas, I definitely mentioned this http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/mubarak-steps-down,
I think the bad guys ride off into the sunset because what are they going to do with the assets give them back to Egypt?
Midas,
My thoughts are very simple. It all comes down to how the Swiss play this. They already let the US bumble one investigation into UBS and gave in partially when it came to the other. I will tell you right now, I would love to see it all play out, but at the same time, I know it won't. I think that the fallout would make for a spectacular movie, but it would destroy the world. I don't even want to know how many secrets are held in the depths of the Swiss Alps, as they would need to date back well beyond the first world war.
Either way, this will have a final act that goes one of two ways, and neither of them are good. 1) The Swiss fold and that opens the floodgates to alot of things that would scare most people (and make Julian Assange all too happy) starting a revolution of epic proportions or 2) Mubarak rides off into the sunset.
Mubarak riding off just further perpetuates the greediness of man and the view that if you are filthy rich, you will be able to stay in that circle for life as long as you have a place to stash things away that no one will find while the fall of the Swiss Banks, that will open up the conspiracy floodgates and expose the world to secrets that were burried for some reason or another. Simply put, I see nothing good from this.
MMM, Mubarak didn't step down, he was overthrown by the same military that is running the country as we speak. The military stood to lose billions of dollars, lots of subsidized equipment, training and prestige if Mubarak was allowed to stay in power.
The Egyptian government and people will not allow him to get away with stealing all of that money. The Swiss have already frozen bank accounts believed to be linked to Mubarak. I would support our government if they wanted to seize all of his American villas and investment property.
UFO, its all speculation at this point, but, I think he was given two options, die or live peacefully. He took the later as any person who stole billions would.
Maybe it just something about being an American or westerner, but I don't think I would ever steal money like this autocrat did. His people are starving, students can't get jobs, kids are dying of waterborne illnesses that could be treated and he has the nerve to steal tens of billions and take IT OUT OF THE COUNTRY. That is enough money to really alter a generation's lives, and the only thing Mubarak and his accountants can think of is how to get it out of Egypt. If you steal, at least invest in your own country. Loan it, open up Mubarak S&L, start a pan Middle East company or find another way to get your people involved.
UFO, I would be interested in hunting down some of the dude's loot.
I wouldn't be able to live with myself.
Really, there's probably thousands of people out there thinking - fuck this bastard, I'm going to rob HIM and see how he likes it. Shit, I'd help for like 1% of the take.
Why dont we really organize ourselves and see how we can steal him and take a 1% comission of the money we get? since it is stolen they cant prove we stole it from him since it doesnt exist in the first place.
I say the easiest way would be to get to his son (ex IBer and PE guy) and just improvise from there ahhahah
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