Appropriate hedge in turnaround situation
Hi Monkeys,
I'm looking at Newell Brands as a potential turnaround story as the company seems to have a few catalysts that I view as likely to push the stock back into normalized territory over the next few years if the narrative plays out, however, as everyone knows there is risk in attempting to time a "falling knife" position. So to help limit extreme losses I looked at hedging with derivatives but ruled this out as they are priced to perfection, so I took a look at the bonds, specifically, the senior unsecured notes yielding 3%-4% maturing in 2023+ and was intrigued as I estimate that if things turn for the worst and the company goes into default (worst case scenario) the bonds would drop to 30%-50% of face value as there wouldn't be much due to the tangible assets being worth significantly less than net debt.
I would love to understand someone's perceptive on the situation if they have experience putting on a similar trade.... long common with a bond short.