A Reprieve from Red | The Daily Peel | 5/23/22

Market Snapshot

Last week marked 8 straight weeks of losses for US equities. There’s not a ton of good news to post here, Apes. On Friday, the Dow and the S&P were up slightly, 0.03% and 0.01%, respectively, while the Nasdaq lost 0.30%.

Our roller coaster of a year continues. BTC and ETH traded at 30k and 2k, key technical levels for related benchmarks. WTI Crude will open this morning just shy of $110 per barrel, and the 10-year yield is holding steady at just under 2.8% last time we checked.

For today’s Banana Brain Teaser, we will chop 50 bananas off of our Excel Modeling Course for the first fifteen respondents with the correct answer.

Are your MS Excel skills holding you back? Are you still using a mouse when you do your analysis? If you’re looking to master the tools that will make you successful as a finance professional or technical communicator, look no further than WSO’s Excel Modeling Course.

Let’s get into it.


Banana Bits

  • Today in the Elonverse, Musk denies accusations of sexual harassment, calling this attack a despicable and expected play from the left’s playbook
  • Lol yeah, obviously everything is more expensive
  • If you can’t use Excel without a mouse, you should keep your resume lookin’ sharp
  • More investment into EVs? Yeah, at $6 a gallon, I’d say it’s time
  • In case you didn’t know, not only is Ukraine’s president a baller of a world leader, but he is also a fashion icon

Banana Brain Teaser

The answer to Friday’s Brain Teaser was that Thursday was their horse’s name. Congrats to our winner. Enjoy your swag!

For today’s first fifteen respondents with the correct answer, I will knock off 50 ‘naners from our Excel Modeling Course for the first fifteen apes to respond correctly:

Before the Marianas Trench was discovered, what was the deepest oceanic trench in the world?

Shoot us your guesses at [email protected] with the subject line "Banana Brain Teaser" or simply click here to reply!


Macro Monkey Says

Market Mechanics — The stock market works just like most things in economics: supply and demand… or so you’d think.

A good chunk of volatility lately in the markets can be attributed to derivatives trading around earnings, particularly in the pre- and after-market trading periods.

As companies prep to announce earnings, institutional investors are placing leveraged bets for or against companies using the house’s money. Sure, you can’t front-run a client’s order, but the smart money has found ways about this technicality.

These market makers are also participants in the markets themselves, affording their own books the opportunity to access liquidity during times when the rest of the market doesn’t have access to it.

Is this fair? Is it acceptable to the SEC that the retail trader gets his f*cking face ripped off when a Target $hits 25% after hours or an Amazon loses a third of its value during a period of time when the little guy doesn’t even have access to the market?

Frankly, yes. Yes, it is. Sorry about your retirement account.

Lately, we have seen a whole crap ton of 2% or higher swings and not just in individual names but in the broader markets and major indices.

These two phenomena are not mutually exclusive. They affect each other.

When will this all stabilize? Well, I think the jury is still out. Oh, and by the way, the Fed plays a role in this madness too, but we will save that for another time.

Happy Monday, Apes.


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What's Ripe

Eli Lilly and Co ($LLY) — Shares of the drugmaker climbed higher on Friday after a critical regulatory decision on human use trials in Europe was approved. On the news, $LLY moved higher by 4.41%.

These drug dealers are actually up almost 10% for the year - not bad, all things considered. They’re expecting other key regulatory decisions from the FDA later this year which could drive the share price higher… or deliver a crushing -30% blow to the stonk a la Teledoc or Amazon or Target, etc. depending on the outcome.

Palo Alto ($PANW) — Finally, a growth company that makes some money and has a quarter that beats expectations. These types of companies are few and far between in this market environment, but Palo Alto’s performance in these recent few quarters probably justifies all the attention they’ve been getting.

They posted solid earnings numbers last week, pushing out a beat and raise for the third straight quarter. Shares of the cybersecurity firm were up 9.70% on earnings news.


What's Rotten

Ross Stores ($ROST) — This one is kind of a shocker to us here at the DP. After seeing TJX post a solid quarter and become one of the few earnings darlings this spring, Ross brought us nothing but tears and disappointment, similar to many of you as children.

$ROST was down 22.47% Friday after posting weaker-than-expected EPS and revenue numbers. Their guidance for the rest of the year was anything but rosy, and even this discount retailer is at the mercy of Chinese supply chain hiccups.

Tesla ($TSLA) — The DP’s favorite EV-maker shed 6.42% on Friday. A few weeks ago, all we did was write positive news about Papa Elon, but lately, he has been taking it on the chin.

Investors are worried about a lot of $hit when it comes to Tesla. Supply chain, China lockdowns, C-19-related hiccups, financing for the Titter deal, Elon being spread too thin, and the potential for all of these issues manifesting as a miss on vehicle deliveries for this year.


Thought Banana

Pay Transparency — I have a hypothesis. Pay transparency is bad for companies that don’t pay as well as their competitors.

I think that it’s even worse for public sector employers.

You’re probably familiar with the concept of FOMO. Well, the fear of missing out is pretty significant for a high-quality candidate who now explicitly knows that someone doing his identical role in the private sector makes double or even triple his salary.

This is particularly true for innovators at public space organizations who work in analytics, advanced technologies, or even IT.

Last week, we wrote about knowing your worth. Well, this becomes an interesting concept when you make a value comparison in dollars.

Public space employees are typically paid less than their industry counterparts. Does that mean the work they do is less valuable?

Not in our eyes. Public service in any shape or form is valuable. It just turns out that the value doesn’t stack up that well when measured in dollars.

Fortunately for employers, some of these major pushes for pay transparency will only be enacted as the economy slows, interest rates rise, and the labor market loosens.

For example, the City’s new law on salary inclusion in job postings won’t go into effect until November. The state of the economy is going to be different in six months than it is today.

Companies that pay a healthy wage and share their wares with their most valuable assets will benefit. Job seekers will see employer generosity and award it with even more competition amongst quality candidates for slots at that company.

Pay transparency will also help close the gender pay gap, as well as silence some of the noise in recent years surrounding the topic.

At the end of the day, information is power. Elon Musk recently made jokes about controlling the teleprompter vs. controlling the country. The same is true of the narrative in the workplace: he who controls messaging controls the conversation. Pay transparency is another way for employers to manage this messaging.


Wise Investor Says

“Money is not everything. Make sure you earn a lot before speaking such nonsense.” — Warren Buffett



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