I am thinking about making a small move into Greek Banks. Looking at BPIRY. Seems like a Grexit is unlikely and that the few remaining big banks are primed for a rebound once the current situation calms down with the new socialist party in control.
Curious to hear any of your thoughts on this.
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When you say "Grexit is unlikely", what is your estimate of its odds?
My completely unprofessional and unqualified guess is the odds are less than 25%.
20-25% is in line with most estimates I've heard, including some official ones, if memory serves.
Let's take 25% as a worst case. That puts "fair value" at arnd 2.6 give or take, using my somewhat arbitrary methodology. So you could make 60% if uncertainty abt Grexit persists, but the panic subsides and things normalize. You could lose 100% if Grexit happens. You could make, say, 200% if Grexit is firmly off the table. For me, given that the most likely outcome is more brinkmanship and disagreement for a while yet, I don't like the payoff here. Just my Z$2c and I am not even sure I've done the exercise correctly...
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