I am thinking about making a small move into Greek Banks. Looking at BPIRY. Seems like a Grexit is unlikely and that the few remaining big banks are primed for a rebound once the current situation calms down with the new socialist party in control.
Curious to hear any of your thoughts on this.
When you say "Grexit is unlikely", what is your estimate of its odds?
My completely unprofessional and unqualified guess is the odds are less than 25%.
20-25% is in line with most estimates I've heard, including some official ones, if memory serves.
Let's take 25% as a worst case. That puts "fair value" at arnd 2.6 give or take, using my somewhat arbitrary methodology. So you could make 60% if uncertainty abt Grexit persists, but the panic subsides and things normalize. You could lose 100% if Grexit happens. You could make, say, 200% if Grexit is firmly off the table. For me, given that the most likely outcome is more brinkmanship and disagreement for a while yet, I don't like the payoff here. Just my Z$2c and I am not even sure I've done the exercise correctly...
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