How to Determine Corrections from Pricing History

Hi all,

Cannot seem to wrap my head around this and was hoping to get some input.

Say I have daily pricing history of SPX dating back to 1990, and want to determine all of the corrections that occurred (defining correction as a pullback of 10% or more).

Given a correction can take place over the span of 1 day, 3 days, a week, 2 months, etc... One way I have tried to pinpoint these pullbacks is by calculating rolling returns from several perspectives (2 day, 5 day, 10 day, 1 month, 3 month, etc.)

The issue I have is that this results in different figures; for instance in some situations there will be corrections on a 3 month basis but nothing else, other dates are in correction range for all date ranges, etc.

So which date range do I focus on in determining when corrections occurred? IS there another way to carry this out?

thanks

5 Comments
 
Best Response
"MBA_Junkie"

Is it possible to determine this from price data alone? don't you need some context as well? Given the varying time span for corrections how do you reliably differentiate a peak (or bottom) from a local maximum (or local minimum)?

Yes. You could run it on price or total return, it doesn't really change the calculation.

Column A: Dates Column B: price history Column C: =max($B$2:current cell) Column D: =(B/C)-1

This will tell you each point the market had a drawdown and how big it was. You can copy and paste values and then sort them with dates.

If the market is at a then all-time high, the return in column C will be 0%. If the peak was 100 and the current price is 80, it would be -20%.

Can't tell if you guys are just fucking with me or not.

 

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