UBS has Three Cards Left to Play & All three move its HQ
Swiss regulators are about to hammer UBS with another ~$25–30bn in capital requirements just for being the last global bank standing in Switzerland. That “Swiss premium” basically means RoE will lag U.S./U.K. peers forever if they stay put.
UBS really only has three cards left to play:
- Card 1: Standard Chartered (U.K.) – Cleanest path to London, PRA regime is Basel-aligned, and it gives UBS an EM angle without Barclays-level politics. Cons: messy EM exposure, still needs U.K. blessing.
- Card 2: A U.S. Super-Regional (PNC, U.S. Bancorp, Truist) – Flip into a U.S. topco, land under Fed oversight, deeper investor base. Cons: multi-agency gauntlet and “Swiss bank buying U.S. deposits” won’t play well in D.C.
- Card 3: UniCredit (Eurozone) – Build a “European champion” under ECB oversight. Cons: Italian politics, weak market perception, execution nightmare.
Everything else (Deutsche, Barclays, etc.) is fantasy and politically dead.
We are planning on pitching them on spinning-off their IB (worse performing group) to appear less risky to Swiss regulators. They can then have referral agreements to different IBs
Yes the spinoff is the answer - Paine Webber returns. Or actually they should go with one of the original bulge names - First Boston.
Spinning off whatever’s left of the IB arm under the iconic First Boston name would be pretty damn cool. Let it operate under the Jefferies model - independent advisory with a JV to lend off of a partner’s balance sheet.
No idea why this is being downvoted.
Nothing worth spinning off tbh
Know some senior leaders at UBS; genuinely 0% of a spin-off. IB is a growth area, as is the US as a whole; pretty clear from the $'s they have put into it. It's also by far the most logical growth area given WM's strength. This forum is not realistic when speaking about UBS.
Growth area? Lmao
More like a shrink area L12M
We are talking about the bank not what’s between your legs per your ex…
I think you are delusional or maybe just haven't learned anything in finance. Growth area refers to an area that a company believes will grow, and they invest a lot of capital in. It's very clear that UBS IB is an area that the leadership thinks will grow, or else they would not continue hiring a bunch of seniors every few weeks.
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