Urgent! Advice Needed on Imminent Exit

Hi there, burner account due to the nature of the post, but need some advice on how to proceed here from people who may have seen this sort of thing.

Long story short, I transitioned from a non-finance career into sell-side equity research in NYC at a top EU bank less than 3 years ago, and I am currently a VP and lead analyst on a handful of names in one subsector, while also supporting my original analyst as a PT associate in another subsector. I have an excellent relationship with that original analyst, but he left at the end of Q2 without an opportunity to follow (related to the nature of his change, not our relationship). Even before he left, I have been looking to leave my firm, as I am in a poor position when the next headcount reduction comes (described below), and I expect that in the next 6-12 months.

Upon this development, the firm made it clear they didn't want to let me expand to full analyst (would be 4th analyst in that subsector behind the head of the subsector, a recent hire who is well like by management, and another recently promoted analyst who also supports the head of the subsector, so I'm the odd person out when the hammer falls anyway). As such, the job search to exit was accelerated to full-time, with management's blessing to keep me on covering my companies while I worked things out.

Less than 2 months later, I am faced with the offer to A) resign my position this week while receiving double my standard gardening leave, or 2) to attempt to match or exceed the top-performing new analyst on the floor in an undefined (but implied very short) period of time, at which point if I have not met expectations they would discuss firing me for cause.

The "for cause" part baffles me, because while I won't say I haven't made any mistakes in my new role, I have received only positive feedback from both inside and outside the firm, with my readership matching or exceeding similar notes from more established analysts. I even have been told by sales and clients that I received several II votes this year (management's top priority), even though you can count my covered companies on one hand, which blew my mind. I have never had a negative performance review, client complaint, or compliance issue, and I am a team player and collaborator who tries to help others whenever I can. I don't mention any of this to brag, I worked hard to pull off what I have accomplished and am proud of what I have done.

That said, I understand that sometimes the chips fall a certain way and there is just no longer a spot for somebody, but having "for cause" brought into it is just baffling to me. The offer is not a bad one, per se, as management and I each had hoped that this would not drag on for months, but as the year progresses it is increasingly difficult to find open positions in research. My main concern is that if I resign, I would then forfeit my ability to claim unemployment when that gardening period was over during Q4.

For background, I was unemployed for close to a year prior to joining the firm from a completely different career, with a lot of student and other debt from both a long history of very low wages and a series of poor decisions many years in the past that I have been paying for (deservedly) for some time. That was a hole I dug myself, and I have worked very hard during this time to shrink my debt while avoiding bankruptcy (I'm an aspiring Lannister, I pay my debts), but that period of time required me to live without a credit card for 2 years and destroyed my credit score, all while keeping essential bills paid and a roof over the head of my newly expanded family. I have built myself back up over these past three years, restoring my credit history and paying off roughly a third of my debt, but that was at the expense of building up any savings, so I cannot consider another significant period of unemployment, it would be devastating for my family.

That said, I think management's offer is reasonable, but I don't understand the caveat of needing to resign rather than be let go for headcount reduction (or even mutual agreement) due to my position no longer being available (half of my job was to support my original analyst, who left). This is the main point on which I am seeking advice, I feel like I'm being pressured into something because the firm needs to build a case to fire me out of fear I will try to hang around for as long as possible (which I am not trying to do but I can understand the concern from a management perspective). Again, it seems like a reasonable offer, but I cannot accept willingly waiving the right to unemployment benefits, and I don't want to get caught up in a protracted battle of being fired for cause and an ensuing legal battle for not only benefits but also to protect my FINRA record. Curious to hear if anybody has either experienced or heard of a similar situation here.

In the meantime, yes I am actively looking at positions, and have had some early discussions with multiple recruiters and hiring managers, plus 2 second round interviews. I have also been in contact with multiple trusted clients and members of our salesforce for contacts. My original plan was to move to the buy-side after ~2 years (which was briefly put on hold with the promotion to analyst last year, but continues in earnest), but given the circumstances I would also be happy to get a full shot at another sell-side analyst role or even another hybrid associate role in my current subsector. Hell, I would be happy to go back to bartending or anything else to avoid putting my family through the hell of being unemployed again!

To summarize, I'm not looking for pity or pick-me-ups, I know the task ahead of me and how to tackle it long-term, just really looking for actionable advice from folks with real-world experience in any reasonably relatable situation. All I can offer is eternal gratitude and top-shelf bourbon for solid advice. Apologies for any redundancies or info gaps, happy to clarify any questions, and thanks for any help!

Burner123