Employer making false promises

2 years ago when I had an outside offer, the Global Head told me that they will promote me to a regional head of the desk (managerial role) by the year end. I was won over and stayed with the firm, because this promotion would mark a significant milestone in my career.

In that year they didnt keep this promise with the excuse that the industry was challenged, and there was no follow up since then.

This year the Global Head told me again that he didnt forget this promise and will promote me in a year's time.

I am now very close to getting a lateral offer from another prestigious firm (similar role as now, but the company has a stronger reputation than my current employer).

I am not sure if I should give my current boss the benefit of the doubt and stay for another year, or just leave laterally to the competitor for a modest improvement in comp and reputation. What would you do if you were in my shoe?

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