Saw a visual capitalist graph yesterday that said babies born in 2026 have like a 3% chance of being born in North America. Thats fucking insane. The whole of Europe was like 4%.
I really don’t think most investors, across virtually every asset class, have come to terms with this new demographic reality.
Even if things change drastically - and I hope they do - there’s still going to be a prolonged period of stagnation unless human labor and our new robot overlords are 100% efficient in both their distribution and execution of work. And prior to that, we’ll have multiple periods overweight elderly population and underweight working age population.
I love real estate, but I don’t know how to defend investing in much of anything at all long term at this point besides healthcare/life science, robotics/ai, and the niche commodities that support both.
What am I missing?
You're spot on in identifying the demographic shifts and their potential impact on investing. Based on the most helpful WSO content, here are some key insights and considerations:
Healthcare and Life Sciences:
Robotics and AI:
Niche Commodities:
Real Estate:
Global Diversification:
Long-Term Perspective:
In summary, your focus on healthcare, robotics/AI, and niche commodities is well-founded. However, consider adding global diversification and niche real estate plays to your strategy. The demographic time bomb is real, but it also creates opportunities for those who adapt their investment approach.
Sources: Divergence in the Drug Businesses: Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology, Q&A: Management Consultant and Value Investor, Life as a Top Asset Manager, The Last "what should I do with my money?" Thread (hopefully), Healthcare Overview... Part 1?
Bump
Bump
I spend a lot of time in SEA and own some property there, and one of the reasons is because of what you described - the population boom in Asia never ends. The West is a rapidly aging population, following in the way of Japan, people are getting married less, having fewer kids, and advancements in healthcare keep people alive a lot longer (especially our good friends in Congress). I personally think zoning laws and rising labor/material costs are the only things that will keep residential real estate high if we look at it from a 20-30 year perspective; I don't see the demand side of things increasing at all. Younger generations are already using AI for romantic companions (you can look it up, it's the second most common use of AI, after using it for homework, among teenagers), and it's only going to get worse as these technologies become more advanced and we keep implementing policies that are implicitly anti-family in the U.S..
Why does this surprise you? I looked up that graph - it defines North America as solely the United States and Canada. That's about 385mm people, out of a global population of 8.3b, so like 4.6%. So it's not THAT far off, statistically speaking, from the pro rata share of global population.
Why defend anything at all? Do what works now, and worry about what the world looks like in 30 years in 30 years. Besides, it's not like the only form of population growth is birth rates. Immigration matters, too. Which is why conservative policy is so self-defeating, of course.
Immigration really is the simplest answer, imo - makes me wonder about this current administration.
The US had first year of negative net migration in 2025 since the 70s. Falling birthrates, aging population, AND negative net migration is an absolute demographic shitstorm.
Total fertility rates have fallen across the world, including in less wealthy countries. Mexico, for example, has below-replacement fertility now.
It's really only in Sub-Saharan Africa and certain parts of central Asia that TFRs are still high, and even in those places they're dropping steadily. And the populations of those regions tend to be relatively low-skilled, so it's not clear that importing them in large quantities would be an economically smart decision for rich countries that have generous welfare states.
The TFR of the entire planet has dropped close to replacement now and will almost certainly drop below replacement. So immigration is at best a regional solution to this issue.
I didn't propose taking those specific populations in large quantities. My comment on immigration is objectively true, I made no claims about where they should be coming from or in what quantities. Who says we can't take immigration from countries that also have falling birth rates?
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