"Risk-free Trade" in Apple
If the probability distribution curve for the fair value of Apple stock (posted at Musings on Markets blog) is reasonable, here is an interesting thought on making an almost risk free trade.
Sell Jan 2015 $400 Put option and get a premium of over $50. From the probability distribution curve, it appears that there is more than 99% chance that the fair value of Apple stock is more than $400/share; and almost 100% chance that the fair value is more than $350/share.
So, selling the above mentioned option seems to be almost risk-free. If so, is there a problem with the option pricing? Thanks in advance for sharing your thoughts.
Apple's stock is falling because the primary drivers of its past margins (short and robust innovation cycles and fashionability) have eroded rapidly. Samsung is now leading the innovation in the market and enjoys much lower margins than Apple. Why don't you try revaluing that probability curve assuming that Apple's margins fall to industry norms?
Oh jesus this is how people blow up. You know, I think it trades into 3xx very soon.
You realize that 2015 a lot can change so even if analysis right today it may not be right two years (look at RIMM). On top of that you realize... market might be in completely different market. Normal distribution models caused the 2008 blowup because models didnt see risk... and the x sigma
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