The Worlds First Trillionaire Will Be An AI Entrepreneur
Just read an article where Mark Cuban stated that the worlds first trillionaire will be an AI Entrepreneur. I'm not necessarily a Mark Cuban fan (he's the most obnoxious NBA owner), but I think he is right in regards to AI. I think this is an incredible area of tech that is primed for growth. Personally, I'm not convinced we'll see a trillionaire, but I think we will see a lot of wealth created by AI. It has so many applications, and there are so many places people can take it. I'm excited to see where it ends up in the next 10-15 years.
"I am telling you, the world's first trillionaires are going to come from somebody who masters AI and all its derivatives and applies it in ways we never thought of," says the star investor of ABC's "Shark Tank," speaking to a packed house in Austin at the SXSW Conference and Festivals Sunday night.
We will "see more technological advances over the next ten years than we have over the last thirty. It's just going to blow everything away," says Cuban, who himself started out as the child of a blue-collar family from Pittsburgh. He and Todd Wagner launched the internet start-up Broadcast.com and sold it to Yahoo for $5.7 billion in 1999.
Will AI be the next area of great innovation? Will we see a trillionaire?
From a pure algorithms perspective, there's actually not been much innovation in AI for a while. All the deep learning stuff (see username) has only become useful because of massive improvements in computing power. There have been few truly substantial improvements to AI theory in the past decade.
I don't think that there will be some entrepreneur like Mark Zuckerberg or Gates who comes along and completely revolutionizes AI and starts a brand new business. I think the big advances in AI will come through partnerships between universities and existing tech companies. The computing scale required to test new techniques and algorithms is simply too large imo. There's no elegant, compact formula for AI.
We've got a ways to go though. The smartest people in the world have spent all their time figuring out what ads to show people on the internet and finding signals that have > 0.01 correlation to returns. Sadly, the brightest people are not really working on the big picture problems since there's no money in that.
Beautifully put. DeepLearning has the exact answer to most of the current problems with AI development. It's not that the know-how isn't there; it's about figuring out how to apply it to revamp an industry. And currently, tech's brightest minds are focused on optimizing ads, while Wall Street's finest are trying to locate obscure correlations.
To talk about a specific example, a friend of mine who had studied chemical engineering, learnt machine learning on his own, and developed a fully automated, AI-based bioreactor that models and controls drug production. He couldn't get funding to expand upon the project, since he was labelled 'volatile' (whatever that means). He got rejected from a lot of universities for a PhD, because his grades sucked - even though he had two research papers in undergrad. After a bout of depression, where's he? McKinsey. Where's his research work? Discontinued. Had the university recognized some value in his work, the world might have been a step closer to cheaper drugs.
Getting labeled sucks. Odds are it is one person that spoke to them at the wrong moment. I was labeled as 'agitated' during a job fair. Pulled from a line to speak with the FLD recruiter by someone who had zero knowledge on the position I was wanting to discuss. She literally said "you are agitated" and then wrote it on my resume.
I feel so much sorrow that tech's greatest financial achievements in the last decade seem to be brain-destroying social media sites. They're literally just building an ad revenue machine, not something that actually advances civilization.
Also went through your AMA. Looks like you're one of the traitors too :P.
Out of curiosity, do you think Augmented Reality/Virtual Reality poses a greater opportunity for investors/innovators than Artifical Intelligence? I find both industries to be incredibly interesting and, seeing as you are very knowledgeable about AI, would love to hear your input on the matter.
Pretty much, AI isn't an "invention" its an iterative process that builds on existing knowledge bases and practices. AI processes can't really begin to innovate until quantum computing begins to be further understood. You will have improvements to the existing computing assisted learning but actual AI advancements will need parallel processing advancements order of magnitudes more advanced that what we have today.
Speaking as a deep learning PhD student, I couldn't disagree more.
There has been tremendous advancement on the algorithms side. Deep reinforcement learning, powerful generative models such as GANs and VAEs, and memory networks such as Differentiable Neural Computers are rapidly breaking AI benchmarks much sooner than expected. For instance, nobody thought the top Go player would be beaten until 10 years from now. That advance was through deep reinforcement learning, not computing power. What is really exciting now is seeing all of these advancements come together. Now we are starting to see deep reinforcement networks with the ability to imagine (through generative models) and remember (through memory networks), and will soon be able to play a number of difficult video games and navigate in complex environments.
We aren't far away from automating low-level office work. Certainly, 10-15 years seems like a generous timeframe to automate jobs such as accounting, lawyers, etc. Doesn't that sound fairly lucrative? As for computing power, funded startups are more than capable of buying the resources necessary.
The brightest people in the world aren't working on Wall Street or spending their time trying to figure out what ads to show. They are doing cutting edge research in academia and industry. All the smartest people I know don't seem to care about money a whole lot compared to influence/impact.
I would disagree on a few points. Where is all the pressing potential for AI? In its applications in various fields. Low-level work may be automated soon, but with the tech of 15-20 years ago, we could have also solved more complex, niche problems. Currently, where are GANs and VAEs being used? Facebook. But where would they have had a greater impact? Maybe Toyota, or Amgen. But since these behemoths don't appreciate fully the potential for new AI developments (through pay, benefits and talent retention), human innovation is going two steps forward and one step backward.
Also, let us know of when you apply to RenTech/Citadel or Google/Facebook, towards the end of your PhD.
Come on, you know as well as I do that all the math behind deep learning has been well-established for decades. It's just that nobody knew until recently if the algorithms were even useful because of lack of data & computing power. Reinforcement learning was proposed in what, 1995 or 1996?
I was perhaps being hyperbolic when I said there hasn't been much innovation on the algorithms side. There has but it's been slow nonetheless. You're a PhD student in deep learning so I'm definitely curious to hear more about your opinion about DeepMind's Go AI. From my understanding, the primary reason that they were successful in this is that they had a massive set of games to train it on and that the researchers spent a long time fine tuning parameters until they got it right.
If you have virtually unlimited data, a very specific and well-defined game/problem and a team of brilliant researchers, how can you not succeed? Go is a perfect information game. The game state is completely known. In my view, it's an impressive but still extremely niche application of AI.
I agree that the majority of tasks that accountants are able to be automated right now. But the problem comes down to NLP. If you send an AI an email describing a problem, can the AI accurately decipher the email and then go solve the problem? No, absolutely not and we are far away from having that capability.
Cuatro comas
EAD
Agree with above. However, First trillionaire could be a VC that funded AI projects
Not a chance in hell a VC becomes a trillionaire.
lmao
As an aside, I'm pretty sure the first actual trillionaire will be some sort of Middle Eastern monarch, not a tech guy. Those guys are liquid and they are throwing around money into all kinds of investments. Would not surprise me if one of these guys is the one to hit it big.
habibi money
Mark Zuckerberg is 32 years old and has $60bn. If he lives another 50 years and compounds his wealth (net of giving/taxes/transaction costs etc) at 5.8% annually he will reach $1 trillion in net worth.
Do I think he will do it? No, for a lot of reasons. Do I think he has the highest odds relative to anybody else? Yes.
Lets not forget Central Banks are capable of making us all trillionaires.
I have a picture of him right here:
JK WE WILL TAX HIM INTO OBLIVION!!!!!!!
The richest man today hasn't even hit $100B, but somehow we're already looking at the first Trillionaire. And to be sure, Bill Gates isn't even just some tech guy. He's a businessman that built a successful company. Whoever hits a trillion first will have superior relationships, not just some computer.
You don't 1) spit in the wind, 2) tug on superman's cape 3) take the mask off the lone ranger, or 4) tell the techno-optimists on WSO to calm their rhetoric.
Definitely guilty of number 4 on a number of posts. I'd short the hell out of this optimism if I could.
The world has trillionaires. They're just not on Forbes. They're on some yacht with a race track on the deck with their harems.
That's what I was thinking. I feel like I've read in the past that the richest people in the world today are a few monarchs with at least theoretical access to hundreds of billions of dollars of their countries' land/resources.
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