Are we ever going to see an NPLs/Distressed momentum?
In 2020, everyone was expecting a big wave of distressed assets and non-performing loans (NPLs) because of the pandemic (all the MFs raising billions for distressed mandates). But then, it was postponed by the massive fiscal and monetary policies.
Now, as we witness monetary tightening in response to substantial inflation, there's a question of whether we will ever experience the expected NPL and distressed asset momentum?
Based on the discussions on Wall Street Oasis, there's a sense of anticipation for a potential liquidity crisis and a wave of distressed assets and non-performing loans (NPLs). However, it's also noted that this isn't a guaranteed outcome. There's a feeling in the market that liquidity is waiting for a significant downturn that may not occur, with potential deals available now at 90 cents on the dollar.
In terms of special situations and distressed assets, there's a belief that we might see less aggressive sponsors try to extend liquidity runway first for a year or two without aggressive LME if they think high rates are "temporary". However, if the reality of 2-4% LIBOR for a longer period sets in, and if the maturities come around in say '25 to '28 without being refinanceable, there could be a lot of "real" distress.
The next 12 months or so could see significant LME activity particularly from sponsors like Clearlake who seem to have tons of topical names in the sector. There's also the prospect of actual good or at least decent businesses becoming distressed as many of these LBOs with huge floating rate exposure will likely see a lot of FCF erosion due to interest expense almost doubling.
In the event of a distressed investing scenario, seasoned distressed/turnaround operators will be quickly booked. Alternatives like M&A with more stable corporates also dry up quickly, as they get choosy/constrained and timing is against sellers.
So, while there's a sense of anticipation for a wave of NPLs and distressed assets, it's also recognized that the market is unpredictable and these outcomes are not guaranteed.
Sources: https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/hedge-fund/the-future-of-special-situations-distressed?customgpt=1, Looming Liquidity Crisis?, Distressed Investing: This Time It's Different
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