UMM -> MF Path

Really variable by person but maybe this is something like what you were looking for. I'd break it into steps:

• Associate > VP drops
  • Here's where a lot of people opt out of the game, PE has opened a few more options than IB/Consulting and they've learned that they just don't want the hours anymore or discovered something else they're more interested in
  • Also common that there just isn't room for a VP; totally outside of your control. This was less of an issue over past 5 years during boom times, predict it will be more of an issue over the next five
  • Obviously inability to do the table stakes of the analytical and process parts of the job means you are out
  • politics minimal impact at this point usually, but likability certainly matters
  • people skills matters, but it's not as big here as in next category
• VP > Principal drops
  • points 1 and 2 above are less common here
  • This is where the lack of people skills can bite you. Robots can still make good VPs if they can crush the process and diligence stuff. But if they can't sell, they can't be principals/partners, because they will never self-fund carry
  • Politics does matter. Less so than below, more so than above
• Principal > Partner drops
  • Here's where politics really matters. "Politics" though is a broad term and can often mean that the big leaders just simply don't like you, and don't want to commit to working with your for the very long term which making partner represents
  • At this stage of career your deal track record is highly scrutinazable as you've been around long enough to see through many deals start to finish. If those deals are bad (and if we're being honest, there is some luck factor there), you could be the scapegoat (rightfully or wrongfully) and lose your job
  • If for whatever reason you slipped in through the cracks to principal without the ability to sell well, this is where that could catch up with you