Bonuses fucked?

Generally buyside bonuses are conditional on 1. prior year/period profitability and 2. firm financial condition/outlook... if either is shitty, expect lower bonuses that normal (I'm guessing bonus metrics are not explicit at your firm, like their is a lot of management discretion). There is a third factor (more relevant at junior than senior levels), and that is personal performance.... meaning sometimes there is discretion for super stars/people they don't want to lose. 

So.... those are some tools to try and figure out what your firm is likely to do. If you are at a "mega fund" then it may come down a lot to your team/business unit's profitability and partly on overall parent firm (this is where a lot of pay variance comes from after all). So, is your team/fund/etc. having a good or bad year? Making targets for returns, fund raising, profitability, etc? If your firm is publicly traded, as many "MFs" are, then the stock price and quarterly reports/calls may give you some insight. If not, go read any communications with investors. 

Hope this helps, but as others have said, don't expect any broadly applicable rule/wisdom to come. It will be different firm by firm and even business line and team within firms I'd guess.