How does Trump influence your opinion about RE developers / investors?
For the record: I'm anti-left, so this isn't some liberal rant.
Every time I listen to Trump I am astonished how incoherent he is and how we answers questions. He seems like a sub-120 IQ person to me. He simply does not sound like an intelligent person. I suspect some of this is due to an age related cognitive decline as I'll admit he does sound much better in earlier interviews in 1980s or 1990s.
Yet he was highly successful in real estate business. Does this change your perception of the field in some way?
He was also born very rich. I think he must've been able to just get by on the success of his father. From getting into Wharton to winning deals and building relationships.
what kind of person bases their opinion of the real estate industry on donald trump?
Trump is a lot of things, but unintelligent is not one of them. One could argue that Trump is a polymath. He has been successful--wildly successful--in lots of areas--real estate, casinos, reality television, and politics. Heck, by all accounts, Trump has been a wildly successful father. Trump is just lazy when it comes to public policy. The key to being a great speaker or a really fluent speaker is to really know what you're talking about inside and out, and Trump clearly is not a student of public policy.
Take Obama off a teleprompter and he sounds as retarded as Trump.
Lol you're a joke. Obama killed it when put on the spot, even more than when he had a teleprompter. I mean he was Churchhill on the teleprompter, but he had counter witty remarks and everything, as well as very unexpected interesting things to say. Partisanship is an emotion and I wouldn't my money with anyone that succumbs to their feelings like you or Trump.
I couldn't possibly disagree more with you. Obama was a famous stutterer when not using a script, which is why he is famous for using a teleprompter and rarely holding press conferences.
His casinos were garbage and went bankrupt, he screwed investors to get out without being burned. Kim Kardashian is successful at reality TV, has zero to do with intelligence. I'll give you politics if you define being successful as being elected, if you define it as actually getting out good policy or being a coherent leader, he's been shit. His real estate failures, of which he has many, are widely documented. If his daddy didn't bail him out a couple of times early in his career (so basically if he wasn't born filthy rich) he'd be done. Even with all the early help no one will currently lend to him, it certainly isn't because he's Stephen Ross or some shit.
"Take Obama off a teleprompter and he sounds as retarded as Trump". You can argue that Obama isn't as effective without a teleprompter but by no means does he sound as retarded as Trump. Trump has said so many ludicrously stupid things which would have doomed any other person for any other job like how Obama directly created ISIS. Not that his actions caused ISIS to surge, but that he founded ISIS.
Obama was a constitutional law professor - he had a deep grasp of legal and policy issues. Trump is broadly uneducated about these key issues. Those are just the facts.
Trump failed in business, except for his reality television stint - which does not take any level of intelligence. Politicians are frequently idiots that know how to appeal to their bases (see: almost everyone in the house). Are you going to argue that Kim Kardashian is a 'polymath' business genius too (reality television, games, branding - not that different from Trump except for real estate and politics).
Trump was not highly successful in the Real Estate business. He was a very public figure with a few trophy assets, a few high profile failures and a lot of marketing deals to use his name on other people's projects. He started rich and has maintained his wealth.
How do you define "highly successful"? Trump's a billionaire almost exclusively because of his real estate holdings. He did have a huge leg up when he started out in the late 1970's/early 1980's, but he survived the savings and loans crisis where many failed; he survived the deep early 1990's real estate collapse that destroyed many of the top real estate players of the day; and then he once again survived the 2008-2010 real estate collapse where again many of the top real estate players were destroyed. I honestly don't know how you could dispute Trump's success in real estate. Is he the greatest real estate mind of his generation? Of course not. But to dispute his success is just intellectually dishonest to the highest degree.
Trump was born rounding third base. His successes are far less a product of his ability than his environment. Arguably, his successes have little to do with real estate anyhow - he is a master at branding moreso than development.
That said, Trump's incoherent ramblings don't really impact my view on developers or real estate investors at all. You can't judge a group by only one of its members.
Lol I love the people on here talking like Trump's father wasn't worth $400 million. This is another case of real estate nepotism and the rich getting extra credit for basically returning the s&p 500 on their money. This shit is a joke, Trump is clearly unintelligent and anyone arguing otherwise is just partisan. Comparing his accomplishments to that of Obama's or his intelligence to that of Obama's is just an exercise in willful obliviousness. All one has to do is listen to Trump in an interview and it's clear he has no idea wtf he's talking about. This is a guy that believes people are born with a finite amount of energy and doesn't exercise cuz he doesn't want that energy to run out. This is a guy who said global warming is a hoax perpetrated by China. To answer the original question, Trump has zero impact on how I view developers. He's just another case of a born with a diamond spoon in his mouth asshat, I expect I'll encounter alot of those in my lifetime.
I'm sorry, what? What exactly were Obama's "accomplishments" prior to his election as President? Prior to Obama's TelePrompTer speech given at the 2004 DNC he was a completely unaccomplished person of no note--he even still had college debt at that juncture.
First of all @Dances with Dachshunds" what are you trying to imply? Obama graduated from Columbia then went on to Harvard where he became the first black president of the Harvard Law Review. He then started his career at a non-profit, served a few terms in the Illinois senate and then Christine Forester discovered him out of no where when he was a senator and launched his Presidential campaign, which was one of the most successful and invigorating campaigns in the country. Do people forget that some "nobody" came out of nowhere and beat John McCain - one of country's most decorated and most respected war veterans loved by independents and republicans?
Anyways...
Trump is going to have a negative impact on real estate professionals looking to pursue a political career. Everyone knows he was born into the 1% and had established relationships from his father. Relationships make RE developers. Like another person said Trump survived the last few real estate downturns. You know how he continued to operate huge projects consistently when most guys were forced to take their foot off the gas? It's because he's deeply connected to foreign banks and powerful and wealthy players abroad. He's likely connected to the same types of oligarchs who consolidated power after the fall of the USSR. The events of the last week, the lack of releasing his tax returns, his past (public) remarks regarding Russia, his conspiracy-type of misdirection, etc. all point to that sort of conclusion.
That's my theory and opinion anyways. But I suspect when he's forced out through resignation or impeachment, the public perspective for real estate guys pursuing political careers will change negatively. People will more-so view RE types as people who are shady, greedy, and connected to bad actors. But I don't think investors will shy away from real estate further. RE is now an acceptable class of assets for Wall Street and that won't change.
IQ is mentioned a lot in this thread. A wise man once said "I possess something greater than a high IQ...common sense and self esteem"
One can certainly argue if Trump has common sense. A high IQ does not define an individual in my mind. Some of the highest IQ's on the planet are these master chess players and they can barely figure out the cross walk button. It's not a bad thing to have a high IQ, but by itself it does nothing if you have no common sense and/or the self esteem necessary to take action.
Trump, with all of his flaws, and it's obvious he has many, is a person of action. He's a grinder...
Guys, I think OP's IQ is 120. Just a hunch...
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This is a non political but economics response to your comment. Is this a joke... There aren't enough illegals in c/d multifamily properties to make a dent in occupancy, most are transient and live with friends/family that are here legally. You realize that if your expenses go up due to wage increases then your returns will not go up when you push rents. Per your development theory wouldn't renovation projects not be possible due to a lack of illegal labor... MF development will slow because of construction lending. I assume you're trying to say it would slow because of a lack of labor, if so I think you misestimate the share of illegals in mf construction, this would have a greater impact on sf construction (which would clash with Trump's desire to increase homeownership, again creating a deadlock in his stated policies).
In regards to interest rates and cap rates I will not begin to pretend like I know what will happen, if I knew that I wouldn't be here typing this, I'd be in tahiti watching strippers count my money while my monkey builds a house of gold bricks.
Edit: I just saw the thread below, in which I realized you are a rocket scientist:
9/6/15 "While you're at it, please explain how leverage and CF works"
http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/5-caps-what-kind-of-returns-can-i…
Actually Lol'ing at my desk.
1) Your assumption about C+D apartments is ridiculous .
2) The immigration issue affects wages of those who are uneducated. A non-insured contractor who may or may not be a legal citizen pushes wages down from other non-accredited laborers (like the guy you went to high school who never graduated high school but works with his hands all day as a craigslist handyman). This also affect other industries where low wages can paid because there's enough labor out there willing to work for below minimum wage. Your boy, President Trump took advantage of this during his time as a real estate developer, i guarantee it. If immigrants get pushed out, you'll see an increase in wages for the low income, uneducated class. But it is not a benefit like you think. All of these people buy groceries, clothes, electronics, etc. You'll see businesses hurt from loss of spending.
See: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/02/09/immigrants-push-down-wages-fo…
3) Pushing a lot of skilled laborers out of the country will make it even more expensive to do construction and rehab.
4) Higher wage growth supports rent increase, duh. But if you just made an argument that - 'Less illegals -> less construction labor -> lower supply, thus higher wages -> Laborers upgrading to Class A households' - .... you're very wrong.
I think what will happen is, the economy is going to be absolutely hot for a few years. Trump will spend (borrow) money like no one's business to "grow the economy".
What will then happen is a huge recession years 3-6 as the economy inevitably reaches a tipping point and crashes hard. He wants to cut high income earner taxes and increase spending for stupid projects like a building a wall on the border that you can just dig a tunnel into a vacant warehouse in San Diego, Yuma, or Texas (new tunnels pop up all the time) and also increasing military spending even when we outspend the next 10 largest countries combined. It's funny when people on the far right cry about the nation's debt levels even when Obama increased the debt by 68% while Reagan and GWBush increased the USA debt levels by 186% and 101%. Can't wait to see a 100-200% increase by a President Trump...
edit: my points about the construction market is relevant with refuting OP's post around immigration. Of course, with large increases of infrastructure spending, the construction industry will see higher employment and wages.
Is he though?
The industry will get a lot more competitive, now with the preftigious exit ops and all
It's going to be great. We're all going to do very well and be so proud!
What the fuck did you just say?