IRR - 3 Year vs 5 Year Hold
As a Financial Analyst, I am frequently modeling commercial real estate deals. Typically, I will do a 3 Year and 5 Year analysis. Most of the time, the 3 year analysis will yield a higher IRR than the 5 Year analysis. However, in the current deal I am modeling, the 5 year analysis is yielding a higher levered IRR than that of the 3 year by 5 points! In this case, the deal is a single-tenant, Triple-Net long-term lease with 2% annual income growth. No rent abatement, tenant improvements, or leasing commissions. I would share the debt assumptions, but I don't think that will be necessary because the unleveraged IRR for the 5 year analysis is still 133 bp higher than the 3 year analysis.
I would appreciate any insight that any of you may have.
Is your exit cap higher than your unleveraged IRR? I'm not sure that will always make a difference but just testing a $1000 purchase price, $100 rents escalated annually 2%, and a 10 cap at reversion I get a lower IRR for the 3 year hold (8.23%); however, if you change your exit to an 8 cap in the same scenario you will see the 5 year is lower.
You are the best. Thank you so much for your help, that is exactly the case.
I played around with the numbers and did find examples of exit caps which were lower than the unleveraged IRR, but still resulted in the 3 year IRR being lower. I guess what you said can't be used as a golden rule.
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