Thoughts on Cornell Baker Masters in Real Estate (2 years) in Current Job Environment
Had calls with many Harvard MRE and MIT MSRED current students who have expressed nervousness on finding a job post graduation given the current RE and Rate environment.
Given that the Baker program is 2 years, allows internships and smoother pivots, just got a 30 million dollar endowment/donation from Paul Rubacha (which is apparently is very rare in MSRE programs such as Columbia and MIT) and has a strong "cornellian" network...
Do you think , in this current climate, the Baker program is now a more competitive option compared to Harvard and MIT?
Obv there is opportunity cost and living in ithaca for two years.
Edit: Obviously distressed assets/work outs are doing well and where one can really build a career - but most shops are not hiring.
I think if the job market isn't better in 1 - 2 years then we have some big issues long term. I'm already noticing the hiring picking up in 2024. Is it a false start? Possibly, but I can't foresee us still being in this stalemate 2 years from now. Either market recovers this year or it dumps. Either case, hiring market picks up by 2025. Just my opinion but noting that opinions on this stuff are usually always wrong.
What would be a comparable time period?
There's honestly no comparable time period to what we're experiencing now for several reasons. Real estate has never been as institutional as it is now. Other recent periods in the last 20 years were all more swift and violent. Today's is very strange and driven by really strong fundamentals (mostly) but getting crushed by rise in rates and everyone being confused as hell as to what cap rates and yields should be. Once we have more predictability into how this whole rate situation will unfold, transactions will start happening again. It doesn't make sense for funds and operators to just hold onto deals forever, but sales are low now because so many groups can convince themselves that rates will fall soon and they'll be back in the money on their investments, and because buyers are nervous about being too aggressive on exit caps and debt terms. Are they right? No idea. But once it's more clear whether they're right or wrong they'll be ready to move on and transact.
Most deals getting done now are either being purchased by private capital who has a long-term view and is buying deals that don't make sense today because the basis feels right, or select few institutional groups that are getting more aggressive because they have a house view that cap rates will compress or that they will be able to refinance into positive leverage in a year or two. That means that there isn't much hiring because private capital is lean, and not many institutional groups getting deals done.
My life is in the tender hands of Jerome.
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