Wanted to get some thoughts from you energy bankers out there....
With oil on the rise at around $70/barrel, and with Saudi wanting to push for something close to $100/barrel (might only be short term for their Saudi Aramco IPO), what do you think that holds for the future of IB? Do you think we'll have another flurry of M&A followed by a round of restructuring? I don't really think that too much north of $70/barrel is sustainable given that there are so many alternatives out there; I think that overall demand would be pushed down if we try to get close to $100/barrel. Correct me if I'm wrong on that thought process.
Also wanted thoughts as someone that is about to start B school this fall (2018) at a energy bank target school, and am weighing the options between BB v EB (know that there have threads on this). I know that some EBs perform well in a downturn, winning rx work (jeff, laz - though apparently some don't like TPH) and that BBs don't perform as well since they can't do the rx work, which might mean more layoffs. Although I do think that BBs provide a better platform for career bankers (not sure that's what I want to do, although a definite possibility) since they will usually get a larger rolladex of clients (which is what career bankers need I think more than anything - need to bring in $$) and work slightly less (not as lean of deal teams), EBs will definitely not be laying off as much in the downturn since they can do rx work, and the work overall is probably more interesting since they don't have as much regulatory crap in mix. Also hear ECM and DCM get old pretty quick.
Would like you thoughts on both topics (future of IB in higher oil priced environment and piggybacking off of that, BB v EB given the situation)