The future of LA

ga901's picture
Rank: Monkey | banana points 46

Curious what SoCal guys think the future holds for LA. The change here is staggering.

Tech companies are flooding in. Snapchat, Amazon, Google and others all have major presence in Venice, playa vista, and South Bay. Not to mention SpaceX and Tesla.

Downtown has a new skyscraper going up every way you look. And the expo line now connects downtown to santa monica.

Culver city is seeing major deveopment. A lot due to the expo line running through it.

Seems like every industrial property in the city is being converted to creative office.

The giant new NFL stadium will be going up in Inglewood.

This flooding of money and high paying jobs has been driving up the price of housing and displacing many natives, even in places like echo park and highland park.

What does this all mean for LA? What will it be like to live and work here 5-10 years from now? Pretty exciting times. I wish i had some money to put down on housing in some of these up and coming locations.

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Comments (50)

Jul 11, 2017

LA just got either the 2024 or 2028 summer Olympics too.

Jul 11, 2017

All this as I was trying to find a reason to not spend the money to go out there for ULI's Fall Meeting....

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Jul 11, 2017

If they could get some type of public transportation that quickly connected all of the cities that would help tremendously. If one wants to go from Playa Vista to Avenue of the Stars in Santa Monica they have to either sit in traffic on the 405 or sit in traffic on Lincoln. There's a shortage of housing so people are going to get priced out and there's a similar effect in Orange County as well and I assume will be, if it hasn't already, be happening in San Diego next.

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Jul 12, 2017

The MAGICALTUNNELS created by INNOVATIONGOD Elon Musk will UPEND and DISRUPT LA's transportation ECOSYSTEM

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Funniest
Jul 12, 2017

Shows how well you know LA when you think Avenue of Stars is in Santa Monica....

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Jul 12, 2017

Fair fair, I think of Avenue of Stars and Santa Monica Blvd so I think Santa Monica every time

Jul 11, 2017

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Jul 11, 2017

You can bring all the jobs you want, but it's still impossible to get around Southern California. That's pretty much the reason it will never become like SF.

Jul 12, 2017

Right, because there's no traffic from San Jose to SF in the morning

Jul 12, 2017

Sure. But if you live in the city there are multiple ways to get around SF. There's about 1 1/2 in LA.

Best Response
Jul 12, 2017

Sounds like you're forgetting skateboarding, surfboarding, hopping on the back of taco trucks, hopping on the back of the Bluth family staircar, and white Broncos. Just sayin...

Jul 12, 2017

touche.

But taco trucks or Broncos won't work anymore, traffic has gotten much worse

Jul 12, 2017

I've been living in LA for a little over 3 years, and I always thought the difficulty of getting around is exaggerated IF you have a good paying job (which applies to most of us here as well as most of the tech workers flooding in).

If you have a good paying job, you can afford to live in a desirable area that is within 20 minutes of work (unless you work downtown, in which case you can take the Expo line and live in Culver City or Santa Monica). Another thing that I think gets looked over in LA: once you're older and want to buy a house, you can buy a house in the city vs. in the suburbs. If you are living in NY, Chicago, SF and buy a house in the suburbs, you have to commute all the way back to the city on the weekends when you want to have fun. If I live in LA, I can buy a house in Manhattan Beach or Brentwood and be 5-10 minutes from where I want to be.

I've taken the Expo line to get downtown and to Santa Monica and I actually think it's better than some PT i've taken because it is all above ground with great cell service and sun light. Not to mention you'll never be waiting outside in the rain or snow for it. I also worked downtown for a year, and if I got off past 730pm it would take me 25 minutes to drive to my apartment in Santa Monica. I think most of us here are getting off past 730pm.

Most of these tech guys will be working near the beach where they can get a nice apartment and walk to work and have everything they need in the general area. If they feel like going out in hollywood or weho for the night they can take an uber with no traffic.

Not to mention this new wave of work from home employees. I have many friends that work from home 4 days a week. They live in the South Bay or Santa Monica in an apartment by the beach. They rarely have to drive anywhere and take lunch breaks to surf or play volleyball.

Either way, none of this will matter in a few years when our lord and savior Elon Musk invents a way to relieve traffic.

I've always told people: LA is great if you have money, but hell if you don't.

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Jul 13, 2017

When is there no traffic from Venice/ SaMo to WeHo??

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Jul 13, 2017

You can live in Santa Monica and never really have to leave that often (plenty of bars, restaurants, grocery stores, gyms, offices, the beach). If you want to go out in WeHo at night, you can get there in ~20 min via an uber anytime after 930pm. Driving to WeHo from Santa Monica during rush hour is absolute hell. But point being if you live in Santa Monica, the times you will have to do that will be rare.

Jul 13, 2017

What part of LA have you been living in for 3+ years that you don't think traffic is a problem? Even if you have a good paying job (of which there are less than in other metros, as has been addressed already in this thread) the housing costs are disproportionately high. Have you ever taken the Expo line? I used to live in Culver and worked Downtown, and can tell you this is not a desirable situation. If you're working late, the frequency of the service is not ideal. If you don't ever need to leave your neighborhood, LA is great - South Bay, SM, etc. If you ever need to leave those said areas, whether it's a weekday or a weekend, a large portion of your life will be eaten up in travel times. Also, I'm sorry, but your comment about buying a house in Manhattan Beach or Brentwood is a little absurd. Do you know how much the average home there costs?!?!?!? Spoiler alert, it's 2.2 and 2.4 M, respectively. That's almost 500K down if you are planning on putting 20% down. I know that most of us on here do pretty well, but that's not exactly affordable and the average finance/CRE guy will have to work for a few years to afford that, unless you are at a later stage of your career.

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Jul 13, 2017

I actually spent a few months living near the Culver stop on the Expo line and thought it was great. If I knew I was going to be working late I'd drive, in which case I could get home in less than 15 min. There was the occasional time I stayed late unexpectedly and yeah it sucks having to wait 20 min for the next one to come. Taking it after 9pm was always a rush though - never knew what kind of people you'd see on it.

Average house is $2M + but you can get in for $1.5~ which is affordable for most dual income couples in their 30s with good jobs (Tech, RE, Finance, Consulting) which is very popular in LA. In my office, all of our VPs who are in their 30s live in West LA or South Bay in a house they both purchased and remodeled in the last 2 years.

Jul 13, 2017

Yes, that's my point about the trains at night, it's a little sporadic and/or sketchy. Kudos to you for not whimping out though, as I know a lot of people who work downtown who don't even consider it an option.

Again, if you are using an example of a power couple who are probably making in the top .005% of income earning households in the market and approaching the height of their careers as your definition of 'affordable', then yes, I concede your point. My point is that this isn't a 'good deal' by any means and you will pay dearly for it, both literally and figuratively in getting to that point of your career. I guess all I'm trying to point out to the uninitiated/people who don't live here is that it's not all rainbows and butterflies just because the weather is nice - it comes at a cost.

Sidebar, the most obvious point for us real estate people is that you are going to be driving a lot at middle- to late- stages of your career if you are advancing (i.e., having to drive to sites/tours, sourcing deals, going on investor tours/roadshows, networking events) so especially for our sector, I don't think you can really avoid the traffic unless you happen to get lucky and find a micro-market where you have investors willing to let you deploy/allocate hundreds of millions of capital within a ~5 mile radius (and enough deal flow/business that you can win solely for your firm). If you find this job, please do let me know.

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Jul 13, 2017

Traffic is a problem for sure. But i thought it was always exaggerated how much impact it makes on your life for someone who can afford to choose their neighborhood and typically works til 7pm or later.

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Jul 13, 2017

Thing is as you get older with family, etc. no one wants to be in the office that late. For jr and low/mid level professionals you're correct. But as you become sr. odds are you aren't working that late and are stuck in traffic.

While I agree LA traffic is overblown, I'd say its more so because of the fact that if you're in NYC you gotta walk to the train, wait, take it, walk to work etc. or even more so commute into the city. If you're in SF you're Palo Alto / Menlo commute blows as does the east bay. Most places really aren't all the different in terms of time but being in the car is way more frustrating than being on a train.

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Jul 14, 2017

LA traffic sucks, everyone knows that. But has anyone lived anywhere else? It's really not that surprising. Most metros in the US have pretty bad traffic. I went to school in LA and experienced LA traffic, but i've lived in Asia, NYC, and I currently live on the east coast in a smaller city. You know what's common? Everyone hates commuting and constantly complains about it. People I work with take an hour to commute each way.

I saw a comment about someone complaining about staying late and having to take the metro? @ga901 . Come'on dude, just download a transit app so you can see the departure time and you can properly time what time you leave work so you're not sitting around waiting for 20 minutes. I take the bus everyday where I live. It's a 2 mile commute in a city with 300k people and guess how long it takes to get to work? 30 minutes. I took the bus to work one year in LA. It's really not that bad. Yes, there's always some crackhead doing some stupid-ass stuff on the bus but you just learn to ignore that guy. Part of the problem is LA is people are too arrogant to utilize public transit. It's not the greatest when compared to London, but it's not like you're living in a third world country.

I'd say most metro have traffic for commuters. The difference is affordability. Obviously if you seek more affordable housing by moving further away from work, you're going to have a terrible commute. But if you were in a city like Cleveland, there's likely a marginal increase in your commute time by moving further from work than in a place like LA.

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Jul 17, 2017

That would work if the expo line stayed on schedule, which it doesn't. Either way, my first line was that I thought the Expo line was great. During most hours of the day, it runs every 6 minutes. Problem is at night, it runs every 20 and doesn't stay on schedule. I wish I could still take it, but I no longer live near a stop.

Jul 18, 2017

Man, I couldn't bring myself to ride on a bus for 30 minutes to make a trip that I could walk in the same amount of time.

Jul 18, 2017

You wouldn't if it was 90 degrees and humid or 10 degrees in freezing, which it swings both of these ways where i live.

Jul 18, 2017

Well sure, I'd take the bus on days of inclement weather and/or when the seasons got particularly nasty (I also live in an area with 4 very distinct seasons and crazy temps, from 90+ to -30). But for most of the days (when it isn't swamp-ass-inducing hot or freeze-your-nuts-off cold), walking wouldn't be an issue at all.

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Jul 12, 2017

Tech nerds picked out another place to ruin? Just great.

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Jul 12, 2017

LA is ridiculous. Saw some study from UCLA that said it is now the most unaffordable major city since the jobs don't pay what they do in NYC / SF. Hoping that the newer companies moving in bring with them a bigger paycheck.

...

Jul 13, 2017
BreakingRich:

LA is ridiculous. Saw some study from UCLA that said it is now the most unaffordable major city since the jobs don't pay what they do in NYC / SF. Hoping that the newer companies moving in bring with them a bigger paycheck.

"And the places where rents are climbing fastest tend to be places with strong job growth. Zillow said rents are up nearly 20% in the last year in Santa Monica and Venice, where tech jobs have surged. "

Jul 13, 2017

LA is still going to be LA. The change is still amazing though, but the traffic still sucks.

Jul 13, 2017

When the SNAP lockup ends, there's going to be so much money flooding LA, i think real estate is going to go crazy. Also on the VC side, we are expecting SNAP liquidity to generation a lot more angel investment and seed investment, which I think will also drive the startup scene.

Jul 13, 2017

Unless Zuck can get their share price down even lower within the next couple weeks.

Jul 13, 2017

SNAP has 1,800 employees, many of which don't live in LA and many more of which joined late enough for their packages to not be FU money. There will be people with money able to buy houses for sure, but its silly to think that such few people are going to make LA real estate go crazy.

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Jul 13, 2017

I totally agree with what you said in respect to LA growing rapidly, but I also think Irvine is growing at an even faster pace. I think in 10-20 years Irvine will be the new Silicon Valley. The amount of start-ups (primarily tech & healthcare focused) and buildings being developed is truly incredible. If I had money, I'd invest in commercial real estate in Irvine.

Jul 13, 2017

That's interesting. I haven't been down there in over a year. Always thought it'd be amazing to work in Irvine in live near Laguna or Newport, but OC never had enough city amenities for me. Maybe that will change soon. I notice a ton of the RE job postings are in Irvine/OC.

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Jul 13, 2017

You're not wrong, but this has all already largely happened. If you were going to make a play in Irvine and wanted to get the biggest pop, you would have had to be in before Don Brenn and Irvine Co. Still not a bad investment, but you're not going to see a ton of outsized returns for that much longer, at least in this cycle.

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Jul 13, 2017

A little context is deserved in order to exonerate LA city planners of yesteryear. LA planners originally envisioned a collection of self-sufficient, smaller urban cores. This was before automobiles blew up. The idea was that you'd live, work and play in your neighborhood. If you worked in Santa Monica, for example, you'd also live in Santa Monica and go out at night and on the weekends in Santa Monica. No one imagined people would be blasting all over LA to fulfill specific needs at very specific different places. You do have a series of nuclei today, but minus the self containment. Maybe the plan was poorly thought out, or it wasn't updated fast enough to adapt to freeways and cars, or individual municipalities' planning commissions screwed the pooch with short termist protectionist NIMBY policies that didn't allow development to keep pace with demand - forcing people to move further and further away while still driving into said neighborhoods to spend their time there (guess which one is my theory??), or maybe the totality of all the individual decision making just overwhelmed the ability to plan around it. I don't think anyone intended for it to be this way

Jul 13, 2017

Not saying that they weren't well intentioned, but any way you slice it there's a huge issue. You have the 2nd largest MSA in the country with a transit/freeway system that was predetermined based on cattle grazing routes, and probably couldn't even handle Seattle's population surge which is obviously a much smaller population.

EDIT: There was some article that came out a while ago (can't find it now) that talked about how if LA wanted to create a system similar to what Chicago or NY have now, it would cost over $1 T.

Jul 14, 2017

Of all events to happen that would bring a level of capital that would be as close to $1T, it's the Olympics. So maybe there's hope.

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Jul 15, 2017

Touche.

Jul 17, 2017

I would argue LA is going through a renaissance. All of downtown is either a brand new skyscraper or one is being built, transit is being looked at and incorporated (an imminent domain just happened on Century Park East), and Tech is entering the scene.

Jul 17, 2017

To further add onto the thread started by @ga901 , NPR/KPBS did a story about Amazon and Seattle, where people are using their experience received from the company to move to a desirable area where 'Cost-of-Living' (COL) is more affordable. Tech companies in general have ruined local economies (given the minimum wage hike of up to $15 in some places), where local natives are not making enough to survive rent-wise and living paycheck to paycheck.

Did we see this happening with GM and other car companies in the past? Or am I wrong?

Jul 18, 2017

Any chance you have a link to the story?

Jul 18, 2017
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Jul 18, 2017

Yeah it will be interesting to see what the next 10 years brings down there. Have friends who have been in LA for 10+ years who are now making the move to Portland, Denver etc because they've been priced out. I still don't think it's as acute as the Bay but certainly much more diversity of professions and income streams down there. It would be good if the city could find someway to integrate all the neighborhoods a bit better. When I lived down there ('06-08) it always felt like things were very discreet and people from one community rarely ventured into another. Maybe that has changed...?

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Jul 19, 2017
jankynoname:

When I lived down there ('06-08) it always felt like things were very discreet and people from one community rarely ventured into another. Maybe that has changed...?

I just moved out after having lived there for about five years, we ventured out everywhere as often as possible. We both had hit our strides and wanted to live up our mid 20's... it was a good time.

Sep 25, 2018

Moving to LA soon. Very interested to hear more about this.

Sep 25, 2018
FCFF:

Moving to LA soon. Very interested to hear more about this.

What hood?

Sep 25, 2018
Sep 25, 2018
Sep 25, 2018

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