Uncovering "News" Before It Hits the Front Page of Bisnow

In real estate, similar to wall street, once bisnow is covering a "hot market" it's usually a little to late. Not always, but generally speaking brokers have managed to mark up underwriting assumptions to a point where the upside is definitely limited.

Curious whether anyone has any interesting news sources/information sources that they use to uncover trends that haven't been largely publicized yet.

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Comments (26)

Nov 28, 2018

Best way to front run the news is to make the news.

Nov 28, 2018

Socialize with owners, developers, and municipal officials, and ignore brokers. Brokers aren't going to be honest with you, and as you say, even if you get credible info from them, they've already priced it in.

Word of mouth is the only way to front run the news. Unless you actually are a reporter (in which case your livelihood relies on not losing a scoop), whatever you see on the front page is literally yesterday's news. The only people who can give you real info about what is happening tomorrow are the people driving the business, and those are folks on the equity and development side, or the folks running the entitlement process who they deal with.

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Nov 30, 2018
Ozymandia:

Brokers aren't going to be honest with you, and as you say, even if you get credible info from them, they've already priced it in.

oh no not this again

Nov 28, 2018

Haha.

Well no matter your opinion, a broker isn't sharing inside information with a buyer without adjusting their price to account for it.

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Nov 30, 2018
Ozymandia:

Haha.

Well no matter your opinion, a broker isn't sharing inside information with a buyer without adjusting their price to account for it.

I don't even know what that means. Are you back to talking about brokers sneakily hiding deferred maintenance or something? This thread is more about market knowledge, which I've also found brokers to be the best one-stop shop for.

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Nov 28, 2018

My understanding of the topic was something like, say, Amazon deciding where to put their HQ. As in, if you have knowledge of that before the general public, you can try and buy before pricing goes up. Or if there is going to be a change in the zoning code. My point is that if you find that out from a broker (and frankly, I disagree that brokers are the place to find that kind of advance info, but that is another issue), you aren't also going to be able to monetize that knowledge.

If you want to know what rents are in a neighborhood, or land prices, then by all means talk to a broker. But if you want to, to quote the OP, "uncover trends that haven't been largely publicized yet," brokers aren't a great bet. With no offense to the brokerage community, all they can do is identify trends that have already emerged. If you want to front run that, you need to talk to difference sources.

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Nov 30, 2018
Ozymandia:

My understanding of the topic was something like, say, Amazon deciding where to put their HQ. As in, if you have knowledge of that before the general public, you can try and buy before pricing goes up. Or if there is going to be a change in the zoning code. My point is that if you find that out from a broker (and frankly, I disagree that brokers are the place to find that kind of advance info, but that is another issue), you aren't also going to be able to monetize that knowledge.

If you want to know what rents are in a neighborhood, or land prices, then by all means talk to a broker. But if you want to, to quote the OP, "uncover trends that haven't been largely publicized yet," brokers aren't a great bet. With no offense to the brokerage community, all they can do is identify trends that have already emerged. If you want to front run that, you need to talk to difference sources.

yeah this just doesn't make any sense to me... sorry some sleazy M&M guy stole your GF or whatever bad experience made you this way

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Nov 28, 2018

Building permits.

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Nov 28, 2018

Talk to zoning lawyers.

Nov 28, 2018
VolatilitySmile:

Building permits.

Maybe this isn't the case in non-NYC markets but most trade rags cover who is filing, especially on the NB side.

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Nov 30, 2018

Brokers--this is what makes them valuable. They know what happens before it hits the news. (Most of the time)

Nov 28, 2018

Yeah but I think the question revolves around how you monetize and take advantage of news before it becomes public knowledge. Once brokers have a piece of information that others aren't privy to, they adjust pricing on what they're selling, so you really don't get any competitive advantage out of it

Dec 1, 2018

what if I buy from another broker lol

Dec 14, 2018

As a counter point @Ozymandia - What if the broker feeding you information is a leasing broker (that you are friends with and given business to before) is letting you know that Fortunate 500 company is circling a submarket where you are buying land for a multifamily development?

Dec 1, 2018

Starter of the thread here, currently a I-Sales broker in NYC, not really sure why/how/where there are brokers or brokerage shops that promote the disclosure of (free) information without somehow adjusting it into pricing for currently available assets for sale.

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Dec 1, 2018

Brokers are a great source of information - just take what they say with a grain of salt.

My experience with the top NYC I-Sales guys - they give you the story straight and I've been on calls where the BSDs are like "honestly their basis is super high and we think these rents are aggressive" or something like "probably not value-add enough for you." That said, I find the leasing and mortgage brokers especially helpful. And yes - a good chunk of the lower MM guys are complete idiots...

At the end of the day its brokers who see the most volume and they can be especially helpful for getting an idea of current market sentiment.

Dec 3, 2018

Once brokers have a piece of information that others aren't privy to, they adjust pricing on what they're selling, so you really don't get any competitive advantage out of it.

Dec 3, 2018

Is this the journalism forum now

Fuckin my way thru nyc one chick at a time

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Dec 3, 2018

Brokers may adjust pricing on what they are listing, but not what their competitors are listing. There is never just one broker in a neighborhood.

Nov 28, 2018

Which brings up the question of where brokers are getting their information. Often it's from the same sources, so there is still no competitive advantage to be gleaned.

Dec 14, 2018

Engineers engineers engineers.

These guys hit the ground before anything legit happens besides a due diligence period. Also found that zoning and planning board meetings are helpful in getting an inside scoop.

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