The Week Ahead : April 8th to April 12th

Hello fellow monkeys !

After what has been called a disappointing week ending with poor jobs and payroll reports, some argue that the bull market is running out of steam. This view is supported by the fact that this quarter's best performers are companies in healthcare and utilities, a shift towards defensive stocks indicating a trend towards more caution. This is where the Fed might step in to invigorate the economy. Indeed, a dozen speeches by Fed officers, including two by Bernanke will take place this week and potentially try to cheer the markets up. Another major factor is the unofficial beginning of earnings season with JPM and Wells Fargo's Q1 reports. As of this quarter, analysts expect earnings to have risen by a conservative 1.5%, down from a 4.3% expected increase at the beginning of the year.

More economic releases and data after the break !

The week starts slowly on Monday with an afternoon speech by Ben Bernanke at 7:15 PM in Atlanta, Georgia. The talk is titled "Stress-Testing Banks: What Have We Learned?"

On Tuesday, the NFIB kicks it off at 7:30 AM with the release of the March Small Business Optimism Index. The consensus is for a decrease to 90.6 from 90.8 in February. At 10:00 AM, the BLS publishes its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for February. In January, job openings were 2.24% higher in December, and they are up 8% year-over-year compared to January 2012. Then, the February Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories is announced at 10:00 AM. Analysts expect a 0.5% increase in inventories.

As usual, Wednesday starts with the Mortgage Bankers Association announcement the results for the mortgage purchase applications index at 7:00 AM. Later, the Federal Open Market Committee publishes the minutes for its March 19-20 meeting at 2:00 PM.

On Thursday, the Dept. of Labor reports its weekly unemployment claims at 8:30 AM. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 365 thousand from 385 thousand last week. The "sequester" budget cuts appear to be impacting weekly claims.

Friday starts at 8:30 AM with the March Producer Price Index publication from the BLS. Economists expect a 0.2% decrease in producer prices (0.2% increase in core). At the same time, the Census Bureau releases its March Retail sales where the consensus is for retail sales to be unchanged in March following the large increases in January and February, and to increase 0.1% ex-autos. Then, at 9:55 AM, Reuters and UMich reports their preliminary Consumer sentiment index for April. Experts expect a 0.4 increase to 79.0. At 10:00 AM, the February Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales report for businesses are published by the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in inventories. Finally, Ben Bernanke delivers a speech on "Creating Resilient Communities" at 12:30 PM in Washington, D.C. During the day, JPM and Wells Fargo will release their Q1 earnings with extra housing information in WFC's report.

Have a good week !