Curious how a recession would impact the MBB's. Bain I'm guessing would be hit the worst since it's smallest and dependent on PE. That said, wondering what usually happens with hiring, particularly with summer classes of interns (who are largely all expecting return offers.
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The running gag is that MBBs are recession proof: if their clients are doing well, they need advice on how to outgrow the competition and the market; if their clients are doing poorly, they need advice on how to minimize damage and rein in costs.
My take on the effect of a recession on PE (and therefore PE consulting) is that it will be relatively mild since funds have raised huge pools of capital and will be eager to spend once valuations decrease. Some of the most successful funds were raised around the GFC and invested in ca. 09-10, so everyone will be on the lookout to replicate this strategy this time around.
Regarding hiring, fluctuations are more closely linked to office/ regional performance (e.g. losing a big client) and attrition rates than to macro factors.
I know in the 09 downturn, MBB hiring at MBA programs fell off a cliff. Much worse than it did for IB, which is of course surprising. I don’t know if that was a reflection of the cash flow situation at MBB or if maybe they just have a more careful hiring culture (ie banks are like “we’ve seen it all before, keep hiring”). My guess is that it’s a function of banker pay being largely bonus, thus banks have the courage to keep hiring bc they’re protected by ability to pay lower bonuses if things stay weak.
Anyways just wanted to share that observation, it was the opposite of what everyone thought would happen. You may want to try and find out how the financial performance of the firms was in those years.
Apparently someone flagged as innacurate. Not sure why. As embarrassed as I am to admit that I’m old enough to have been there, I was there. Any 2010 MBA grad will confirm that MBB hiring was an absolute bloodbath for summer 09, even compared to IB and every other MBA field including other consultant firms. Maybe mitigated a bit for FT but not that much.
MBB was slammed in the 2009 recession and it will get slammed again in the next recession. During a downturn, companies horde cash and cut discretionary spending and the easiest and first cuts are consultants. Clients who otherwise would have bid out projects to MBB now ask their own people to do the work. To compete, MBB slashed their rates and offered upfront work like assessments and benchmarks at heavy discounts or even for free with the hopes of winning the follow up strategy/operations work. As PteroGonzalez mentioned, MBB hiring at target campuses were cut to the bones because the bench situation was so bad. Nothing is recession proof, much less MBB and consulting.