Bitcoin's Return Is Worse Than Stocks and US Treasuries ?
Hello Monkeys,
As reported in this article, according to a risk-adjusted returns analysis conducted by Mizuho, an average Bitcoin investor would have done less well than an investor who put money into stocks in 2017. The risk-adjusted return takes into account how likely it is that you can buy an asset at just the right time and sell it at just the right time.
Risk-adjusted returns year to date 2017:
Euro Stoxx: 13.8%
S&P 500: 11%
Bitcoin: 3.1%
The price of bitcoin is so volatile – it moves so dramatically and so quickly – that even if you have good gains today they are frequently wiped out in the next day’s trading. So it makes sense to account for that volatility by comparing it to a risk-free return, such as an investment in US Treasuries. Bitcoins gains are only valuable if they return more than the risk-free option of investing in treasury bonds. So Varathan factors in this risk by calculating a standard deviation for the price of bitcoin, and comparing that to treasuries.
Also considering how Bitcoin just dropped 28% since last week's record high, do you monkeys agree we would be better off putting our money into stocks?
And do you really think it makes sense to compare Bitcoin's volatility to the risk-free return of an investment in US Treasuries? How would you suggest accounting for the hefty cost of volatility?
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