Are the Markets Actually Broken?
We have all heard it—or maybe are guilty of saying it ourselves...
Seeing large caps move ±10% daily on no news (or at best questionable third-order effects), time horizons becoming shorter and shorter, quality or value investing "legends" like Fundsmith seemingly throwing in the towel and giving in to the momo gods...
Are these signs of structural shifts in public market dynamics that will have a massive impact on the way we invest?
Or is this simply a temporary regime change caused by bubble dynamics, where value or quality (whatever factor you choose) eventually comes out on top over the long term?
If that's the case, should LOs continue to underperform in the hope that sticking to their guns works out LT (as we've been told countless times throughout our careers)?
How do you balance NT underperformance and sticking to your guns with the lack of fundraising that comes with underperforming, and the fact that it's detrimental to LT business survival in the long-only, fee-only world where it's all about scaling?
I ask as a relatively junior investor (5 years' experience) who grew up reading the compounder bros and Buffett-type stuff: "We must hold quality businesses through any drawdowns because that shows conviction in our process/philosophy, and in theory it'll work out LT"... blah blah blah.
Just wondering if you think this style will work again LT, or if things have truly changed and if you arent running some factor neutral strategy making sure you dont get burned over the NT your death is now accelerated further?