How does one determine which sub-sectors in an industry will accrue the most value?

For example, this WSJ article (https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines/airline-fin…) notes that "Indeed, the gains of the air-travel revolution have accrued to companies that make aircraft, not those that fly them." The question is: how does one determine this before the fact? 

If you're able to, please also include an example of applying your theoretical answer to a specific industry (like semiconductors).

Thank you so much!

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