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Best Response

anytime I look at a pubco I do a few things in the first ~20-30 minutes which enables me to get a "blink" style assessment as to whether or not I want to dig deeper:

  1. Get the correct capitalization into excel from the primary filings. Obviously adjusting for options, warrants, RSUs, but also looking for underfunded pensions, off balance sheet liabilities, outstanding litigation, etc. (takes about 5 minutes if you know what to search for). Whilst doing this I recommend looking also at the ownership table and takeover defenses in place, as these things always impact an investment these days.
  2. Figure out what adj LTM EBITDA, EBIT, unlevered free cash flow is; eyeball capex/d&a. Then I search the Q for acquisitions completed in the LTM period to see whether the LTM number might be understated. (takes 10 - 15 minutes)
  3. 1 & 2 give you an accurate idea of face value pricing for the asset. #3 is I skim through the Q&A of the 1-2 call transcripts. I ignore the banal modeling questions from sell-side analysts and look for things that might impact value (guidance, tax refunds, hidden assets, potential events, etc). (takes 10-15 minutes)

If I still think something might be compelling after doing these three things, then I start reading the filings and spreading numbers for a longer period of time. Not saying my process is "right," but this is what I do and it has worked well for me.

 

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