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June 30, 2026
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What is "Macro basis"?
I changed it to Macro Outlook.
The Donald is going to make US treasuries great again...
General view in markets: Trump is going to make global inflation expectations great again... Yuge Inflation... Bigger inflation than China and Mexico... He's gonna build a wall against disinflation and make yield curves pay for it...
Them yield curves are refusing to pay for the moment. 5s30s slope in USTs is arnd 40bps flatter since the election.
Cautious. One has just a good a shot of calling the macro outlook as they did calling the election. The bear case is no different than it was a month ago. The bull case is half the country just got bullish on the economy and neither have would've been if Hillary won.
I'd love to hear about your bear case!
Weak economies... Disengaged consumers.. Fed propping up markets... Economic growth average of the last xx years may have been an event and not the norm.. Take your pick. Not saying I give them all merit.
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