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I don't have the data but I certainly believe it.  Reason is simple: PE is a control investment.  You can buy the asset in a less-than-ideal state, make improvements to it yourself, and sell it for a lot more.  And once you've proven you're one of the few groups that can actually do that, you attract a lot of leverage and capital to do it on a much larger scale.

Compare that to HF.  Markets are public, so good assets will (at least in theory) be bid up to their full value.  You get no control and can't improve them.  And if, despite those tough conditions, you still manage to outperform, you still have a hard time attracting capital because LPs will just think you got lucky.  You can't prove causation like a PE guy can, when he actually oversaw the improvement himself.

There's exceptions to everything I said.  PE markets can get crowded and bid-up, sometimes more than public markets even.  Public investors sometimes do get to influence companies.  Yadda yadda yadda.  But on a high level I think the less liquid markets and turnaround aspect mean more alpha opportunity for PE.

I am in a mixed HF/PE role at a family office, and I've steered it more toward the public side because there's one thing I hate about PE: I need a willing seller.  My paranoia is that as PE keeps growing and sellers get more sophisticated, it will be too hard for PE to get a good deal.  In public markets I always have a willing seller.

 

Because I was(/am) stupid and pictured myself as the next Paulson/Loeb/Ackman/etc rather than ending up as the guy stuck at small funds in 30s making less than 250k...yep, kids I'm the reason your smart friends warn you about equities.

Also went to pods and got blown out 2x in 2 yrs. Its literally all about the seat - if you're not at the top SMs or find yourself the right MM PM (impossible to diligence from outside at 22-24), I wouldn't recommend it.

 
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PE is both boring and overdone - levered multiple expansion without the liquidity. Working with a portfolio company for 5 years is heinous and there’s very little value I can bring that the company can’t. The only value I would bring is capital which is a commodity. Maybe some unique special strategies are cool but they’re rare. Rates have also fallen over last 20+ years, is there really the same juice left to squeeze on multiples?

HF you get the capitalized value of any future world immediately and instantly. I also only have to worry about the strength of my ideas. World news/markets are fun to me as well.

Over the long run, market hours are more predictable and having put down banker 9-5’s with alarming frequency, I was happy to not be on the deal cycle anymore. Under a PM with a track record and am 730am to 7-8pm most weekdays, out by 430pm fridays, occasional weekend work but tbh not really anything that I cant do on my own time, whenever I feel like it. I don’t find volatility very stressful at all. I don’t get people who live and die intraday, but they’re here in HF world which never made sense to me, bad fit imo… And if I get blown out then so be it, I’m still very employable and will be okay in the long run. At least on this path I have a chance at $1mm+ bonus this year if the stars align.

 

HF = Adrenaline-filled high speed racing. Emotions are raw in HF world. Battle and glory. Intellectual honesty. The IQ battleground in HF world is what makes it exciting. Schmooze no one. Control my own destiny (at this level I can say fuck you to everyone and just set up my family office, not a huge sum of capital but it's a highly liquid quant strat that yields liquidity to support my life, basically livelihood won't be taken, cancelled by anyone). Can have an unapologetic attitude in life. And I like to surround myself with math prodigies (in my niche), whose thoughts are non-linear and provoking. 

PE = cower and hide in private markets, in a bureaucratic and pretentious environment, and wet their beds whenever they have dreams about taking public markets risk. 

 

Access to full complete financial information / mgmt team

Army of competent consultants, lawyers, ops ppl, etc.

Little minions (e.g. analysts / associates) who are literally HQ on-demand labor 24/7

Never stress abt ST performance because of the BS private marks system

Feeling like I'm really important

Never regretted my choice though. 100x more happy now

 

At an MBA considering the switch to public markets. If you don't care about the day to day of the work and don't mind the hours, the smart move is to stay in PE all day long.

PE comp/longevity is incredible simply because LPs can't access the private markets via a fee-free index. PE firms can perform in-line with the average of its asset class (or even below) and that warrants their 2 and 20. The whole industry gets paid boatloads of money just to put in the grunt work of acquiring and overseeing a private business. You are paid to provide access. It's grueling, but you have to be really bad to fuck that up.

For public markets, LPs can just buy the index fee free. So you need to outperform net of fees to have a reason to exist (simplifying by not taking into account the sometimes real, sometimes theoretical hedging in HFs). You are paid to outperform as an investor. That's really fucking hard, but comp is amazing and immediate if you're one of the few ones that can do it. But also, you're day to day is focused on developing better investment ideas, which is a ton of fun if this stuff really interests you. 

The reason to go HF is because you love this stuff, want to play the game to see if you can outperform and hit it big early, and think the grind of PE isn't worth the carry waiting for you at the end of the road. If you're okay with the downside scenario of striking out at HFs and are comfortable you'll land on your feet somewhere making more than enough to be fine, you choose to play the game that's fun. 

 

Always loved public markets, and it's what I kinda always wanted to do. Never wanted to do PE, just didn't think I would enjoy it. Was never interested in deals or doing operational improvements or working with portcos. Didn't want to work at a law firm structure (hierarchial, titles matter, pay based on title/YoE). At a hedge fund, everyone is an analyst in essence, doing very similar if not the same work, and I knew I wanted a flatter / more meritocratic environment. There are indeed a lot of factors out of your control, but at a hedge fund you can control your own destiny a lot more. I get that the expected value of a PE career is higher, but my mindset was not to optimize for going into a career where I have high/higher expected career earnings. I just wanted to try and make it. 

If my fund blows up or I flame out, so be it. But I'll do everything I can control to make sure that doesn't happen. I think I'm smart and can get another job or do something different. Obviously gets trickier with a wife, kids, or family in the picture, but don't have anyone else I need to support right now.

There's also a lot of ways to make money. I also understand that other jobs would come with lower pay, but I wouldn't want to regret not trying to make it in public equities.

 

Really interesting discussion. My response likely mimics that of many ripping on private equity but can take it from another approach. I have some family ties to private equity (family operator sold to PE after > 20 yrs in biz) and so I have a natural bias against them. Will start with why HF first and then why not PE after:

HFs offer the more intellectually stimulating and challenging day-to-day, and the pressure/adrenaline of basically a high-stakes gambler with an athlete (not professional level but stakes are just high and work-rate matches). It's a combination of sheer work ethic and ability to learn more rapidly than peers, requiring you to develop edges and unique views based on > 50 different factors while being forced to simplify all of it down to a repeatable process. The SM/MM model is different so frankly it's tough to compare apples to apples, but broadly speaking you just are forced to develop intelligent views based on your understanding of data and what it's telling you. Mispricing's exist all over the place and all sets of public investors can take advantage of them. Forces you to think outside of the box and often times pushes you beyond your comfort zone of what's "consensus." Constantly challenging the status quo. That + most seats in public mkts require you to marry the micro AND macro. You have to be deep on the fundamentals of business/industry but also understand what moves a stock (in PE these are the same thing). As someone jokingly wrote above "I like to struggle for my comp" it's honestly not that far off: you have to struggle for your returns, especially now.

Why not PE is fairly simple and alluded to it in a response to someone above: I think their model is optimized for AUM growth and not for returns and over time my bet is 2 things may happen: 1) if valuations at all reset lower as a result of higher rates for longer than the alpha destruction will be immense and most LPs will redeem and 2) major MM PE shops are actively trying to find ways to grow retail investment in PE, akin to the way ETFs drove passive investing in publics and eroded alpha. On #1, most PE guys tend to believe they're adding value and another poster wrote "I don't know what value I can bring that the company won't add themselves" - this is true 99% of the time. The only value-add for a PE firm is their capital resources and if they aren't fully committed to deploying capital actively towards acquisition then they are rendered useless as a value-creator, and I would see them more as a parasite. They have no macro understanding or larger view on markets and in a world where everything has become so correlated this now matters (if you were attempting to sell in 2022 you couldn't because your sponsor timed it horribly wrong). Seen many-a-time where sponsors in 2020-2021 probably said "debt is cheap let's rev up the M&A machine" just to miss peak valuations in mid-2021 before not being able to find a willing buyer in 2022 on the brink of having to mark their portco's lower. #2 is just that larger MM PE guys have noted their focus on driving retail AUM, this might not look like publicly offered products (rather thru insurance co's) but those flows may matter LT in terms of where alpha vs. beta resides in PE.

Just my two cents a lot of this has already been discussed and well thought out better than my post above..

 

just to everyone quoting how "stable" PE is: I would wager that the days of PE coupon clipping is about to be mega over without rates going down for the next 40 years again. Stability is an illusion in life and especially in finance; at a hedge fund you just see that reality flashing in front of you on a screen every day. 

More generally, I found that the smarter, more open minded, and interesting people were all at hedge funds and couldn't stand PE culture, which I found to be more shallow and full of people who cared a lot about status and hierarchy. There are some awesome PE people and awful people at hedge funds, but if you're good and move up at a hedge fund, you can kind of dictate your own life a lot and do your own thing. 

Also you can't short anything in PE, so where is the fun in that...

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