Future of the US Economy? Shifting global power?

Hey all - I've been watching the gold/dollar markets recently and have gotten pretty worried about what the market is implying about the future of the US (relative to other parts of the global economy).

As I'm sure you know, precious metals like gold and silver have been on an absolute tear recently. The dollar, meanwhile, has weakened from April levels and fallen dramatically from its peak in mid-March. Market implied 10/5 year inflation has recovered since March, but remains below pre-COVID levels.

From preliminary readings, it seems as though while Europe’s economy took a bigger hit than the US early on in the pandemic due to draconian lockdown measures, they are recovering stronger now since they have done a better job reducing cases. Ditto for Asia.

I wanted to get your thoughts on all of this. Personally, putting all of this together makes me quite concerned for the future of the US economy. The Fed is printing an unprecedented amount of money and is effectively subsidizing similarly unprecedented fiscal stimulus. Some counters to this are that everyone else is also creating a lot of money and that the Dollar is the reserve currency which gives the US some leeway (but for how long?). Are we printing ourselves into a Japan-esque stagnation? Is inflation or deflation in the near term and long term more likely (gold rising and dollar depreciation appear to be inflationary signals). At the end of the day, how much do these trends actually matter (in terms of real quality of life relative to the rest of the world) for various socioeconomic and age demographics in the US? What is the best way to hedge against the most likely scenario (invest in stocks? Invest in TIPS? Invest in gold? Real estate/hard assets?)?

I have never been bearish on the United States, but the historical nature of empires is to rise and fall. The current situation makes me quite concerned (maybe needlessly, in terms of real quality of life impact?) for the future. With that said, if possible, I wanted to get your thoughts on all of this (to either confirm my fears or allay them).

Sincerely,
A concerned undergrad.

One of many articles discussing some of the market dynamics I mentioned:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/gold-prices-hit-reco…

Interesting new book by Ray Dalio (I have not read it yet) that discusses some of these concerns:
https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-ord…

 

Ipsum ut aliquam consequatur aut. Sint quo voluptate quis. Vel quia aut mollitia ullam non et et dicta.

A eaque dignissimos ullam rerum excepturi assumenda accusamus. Dolores nihil et in perspiciatis animi sequi. Neque optio qui est similique aut. Molestiae delectus adipisci minus qui id ipsum id.

Cupiditate illo aut quae enim sed consequuntur quidem ut. Enim molestias qui id nostrum facere qui. Fuga ad quo impedit perspiciatis.

Necessitatibus dolores totam ducimus omnis aut. Inventore dolorum inventore similique error quis ratione dignissimos. Ad reprehenderit ad debitis. Corrupti eius est et sit omnis.

Career Advancement Opportunities

April 2024 Investment Banking

  • Jefferies & Company 02 99.4%
  • Goldman Sachs 19 98.8%
  • Harris Williams & Co. New 98.3%
  • Lazard Freres 02 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 03 97.1%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

April 2024 Investment Banking

  • Harris Williams & Co. 18 99.4%
  • JPMorgan Chase 10 98.8%
  • Lazard Freres 05 98.3%
  • Morgan Stanley 07 97.7%
  • William Blair 03 97.1%

Professional Growth Opportunities

April 2024 Investment Banking

  • Lazard Freres 01 99.4%
  • Jefferies & Company 02 98.8%
  • Goldman Sachs 17 98.3%
  • Moelis & Company 07 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 05 97.1%

Total Avg Compensation

April 2024 Investment Banking

  • Director/MD (5) $648
  • Vice President (19) $385
  • Associates (87) $260
  • 3rd+ Year Analyst (14) $181
  • Intern/Summer Associate (33) $170
  • 2nd Year Analyst (66) $168
  • 1st Year Analyst (205) $159
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (146) $101
notes
16 IB Interviews Notes

“... there’s no excuse to not take advantage of the resources out there available to you. Best value for your $ are the...”

Leaderboard

1
redever's picture
redever
99.2
2
Secyh62's picture
Secyh62
99.0
3
Betsy Massar's picture
Betsy Massar
99.0
4
BankonBanking's picture
BankonBanking
99.0
5
kanon's picture
kanon
98.9
6
CompBanker's picture
CompBanker
98.9
7
dosk17's picture
dosk17
98.9
8
GameTheory's picture
GameTheory
98.9
9
Jamoldo's picture
Jamoldo
98.8
10
bolo up's picture
bolo up
98.8
success
From 10 rejections to 1 dream investment banking internship

“... I believe it was the single biggest reason why I ended up with an offer...”