Modi’s Mind is Made | The Daily Peel | 12/20/22

Dec 20, 2022 | Peel #362


Silver banana goes to...

Market Snapshot

Happy Tuesday, apes.

Wall Street has been listening to way too much Ke$ha lately as markets seem to just endlessly go down while yelling timber. Markets continued their broad selloff yesterday, with major indices closing red almost across the board. Yields surged once again on the risk-off trade while the dollar just kinda hung around. Are you having fun yet?

Let's get into it.

Elon Musk's AI-Enhanced Monkey Stock Pickers

We've all heard the (true) story of the blindfolded dart-throwing monkey that got better returns than stock-picking pros. You may have also heard that Elon's Neuralink is equipping monkeys with intelligence-enhancing brain implants (Also true). So, is it really soooo crazy to think this could all be his evil plan to "outsmart the market"?

You be the judge. What's clear is that the unpredictable stock market can make anyone go bananas. But there are alternatives. In fact, as stocks and DeFi crashed, one investment platform had 3 recent exits, realizing: +13.9%, +17.8%, and +21.5% net returns each.

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  • Outpaced the S&P 500 by 131% over the last 26 years.
  • Have the lowest correlation to equities of any asset class, according to Citi
  • Beat gold, real estate, and stocks in inflationary periods historically

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See important Regulation A disclosures.

Banana Bits

  • The unlikely duo of Twitter users and Tesla investors have come together to give Elon Musk a giant middle finger
  • Maybe the whole Zero C-19 thing was totally unnecessary as Chinese people seem to actually care about their health and seek to stay home voluntarily
  • Joseph Wang, aka "fed guy," drops a masterpiece exposing JPow's monetary dysmorphia and calls for a shorter & sweeter QT cycle than expected
  • The luckiest firm in the world? While Voyager's former lover FTX goes through some uhh…personal issues…Binance.US is stepping in

Macro Monkey Says

India Seeks to Out-China China

Not enough people are talking about the fact that India's population will surpass China's just about any day now.

And as a result of that, switcharoos in other aspects of social, and even more so economic, life will and are drastically changing. Let's take a look at what's going on.

India's Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has led the world's largest democracy since 2014. There are effectively no term limits as long as the PM stays "in the pleasure of the President," but don't get it twisted, it's the Prime Minister that runs the show.

Modi's economic ideology keeps one thing in focus: growth, and a whole lot of it. Since taking power almost a decade ago (yes, 2014 was almost that long ago…I can't believe it either), Modi has sought to institute liberalized changes and privatize their economy seemingly as much as possible.

Now, to simplify to an irresponsible level, their starting points were drastically different, but India is largely following a similar playbook as China in terms of global economics. And it's working.

For one, albeit minute, example, just take this stat: In 2022, Western banks will earn more from dealmaking fees in India than in China for the first time ever. While that fact alone isn't punch-yourself-in-the-face astonishing, it's exactly the trend the nation wants to see to spur international investment.

To be fair, that has as much to do with zero C-19 and China's broad decoupling from the global economic status quo.

But, as you'll see in Data Peel below, India is giving China a run for its money (no pun intended) in terms of development financing. Still barely a fraction of China's total developmental financing investments, Modi and the team plan to catch up quick, with these kinds of investments doubling since 2015.

From the capital of New Delhi, dozens of billions of dollars have been poured into infrastructure investments in neighboring nations. Right now, it's kind of like when your little brother beats you in Smash or something-it's not much, but it's a sign of what's to come.

The main drivers are basically twofold and, of course, involve the classic emotions of investment. Fear and greed.

India is shook at the idea of neighboring countries going full-on pro-China as a result of the massive Belt and Road Initiative while also seeking to upgrade the trade capabilities of those neighboring countries so India can sell them more sh*t. Fair deal, right?

We certainly hope so, at least. Literally, half the world's population is nestled in South East Asia, so fingers crossed!

Meme of the day



What's Ripe

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals ($MDGL) ↑ 268.07% ↑

  • Nope, that gain on the day is not a typo. As my editor knows all too well, typos may be frequent, but nah, this ain't one of 'em. Madrigal more than tripled yesterday alone. So what happened?
  • Basically, there is a liver condition known as NASH. I'm not a damn doctor, so I won't front, but it does affect over 3 million Americans every year.
  • All I know is scientists called its drug resmetirom a big deal, and analysts at SVB called it the "best case scenario" dataset. Further, these results come from a phase 3 trial, which is generally towards the end of the line before the drug in question enters production. I smell a monopoly…

MercadoLibre ($MELI) ↑ 4.77% ↑

  • Argentina is up big after its World Cup win, and so is its largest publicly traded company. Shares in the Latin American Amazon, MercadoLibre, popped almost 5% a day following Messi's big win.
  • Yes, the World Cup def had a bit to do with it. Nations that win the world cup tend to see an uptick in exports in the near term, and $MELI is set to be a benefactor of exactly that.
  • Adding to the upside was the Brazilian Supreme Court's decision to continue welfare payments to citizens via a temporary injunction. That means more disposable income for the largest population in MercadoLibre's target market. Not bad.

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What's Rotten

Digital World Acquisition Corp ($DWAC) ↓ 11.24% ↓

  • Oof. Like the biggest of oofs hit Trump's notorious SPAC Digital World Acquisition Corp yesterday, leading to shares falling well into the double digits.
  • They say no news is bad news, and big Donnie T proved this more than anyone when he went from reality TV to leading the free world. Still, yesterday's announcement that the January 6th Committee plans to advise the DOJ to press criminal charges against the former President is a tough one to overcome.
  • But if anyone can do it, it's absolutely this man. The problem, for shareholders at least, is their leader now very well could end up behind bars. Or, maybe he'll be back in the oval. It's US politics, so literally anything can happen.

Disney ($DIS) ↓ 4.77% ↓

  • Remember when Disney made good movies? Yeah, good times. Anyway…
  • Disney is down bad in both stock price and public perception in recent months. The latest kick in the head came from a far softer-than-expected launch for the second Avatar movie that hit US theaters last weekend.
  • To quote American poet Lil Dicky, these "bluish, green, 7'3", tail-having-a** things" captured our hearts, minds, and global climate policy since the movie's launch in 2012. Ten years later, we get the second iteration, with three more set to drop in 2024, 2026, and 2028.
  • Or will they? Avatar: The Way of Water put up some rookie numbers this weekend, scoring only $134mn at the box office vs. the $150mn expected. Shares were punished nearly 5% as a result.

Data Peel



Thought Banana

Elon? More Like He-gone Musk

People are complicated. And often, those people engaged in complicated things become even more complicated themselves.

Exhibit A: Elon Musk

We're gonna skip the guy's background because 1) you already know the story, and 2) if you don't, you got some other reading to do first. (Elon's wiki page)

On April 14th, Musk made an unsolicited offer to buy Twitter at the hysterical and not-childish-at-all price of $54.20, or $44bn. Two weeks later, the Twitter board accepted. Several months and hella legal battles later, Musk became the owner of the newly private Twitter Inc on October 27th.

Now, not even two months later, the man is *allegedly* stepping down as CEO. Yeah, that was quick.

So, if you had 53 days as your bet in Musk's tenure, congrats! You nailed it.

Late Sunday evening, Musk was presumably feeling a bit jealous over all the attention Messi was getting this weekend. Never one to avoid the news cycle for more than 48hrs, Musk knew he had to do something. So what happened, you ask?

Well, the Tweet below is what happened:

thought banana tweet

If Musk really does abide by this poll, which is still up for debate, we can confirm this is the first time that a Fortune 500 company (or maybe any company for that matter) has allowed their CEO to get removed based on a f*cling Twitter poll. As we always say, oil went negative, so can we really be surprised by anything anymore?

I hope not. Either way, this is a big W for a lot of cohorts, but perhaps none greater than Tesla shareholders. Investors have been jittery of late over their messianic Technoking's adventures with another firm, largely leading to the recent selloff.

And Musk himself contributed much to the recent selloff, too, unloading $3.6bn in $TSLA despite saying this not too long ago.

From the moment he announced his "plans" to take Tesla private at $420, we really should've learned this guy prioritizes one M above all else. Nope, not money, but memes.

Wow, and I just thought of this, but what a missed opportunity for a CEO name. He's already the techno king at Tesla, but now what will Twitter do when their Chief Memelord leaves?


The big question: Will Musk actually step down? Who will replace him? Some prominent people have already thrown their hats in the ring...

Banana Brain Teaser

Yesterday You have a 3-gallon jug and a 5-gallon jug. You need to measure out exactly 7 gallons of water. How can you do it?

Fill the 5-gallon jug, pour it into the 3-gallon jug until the 3-gallon is full, and leave 2 gallons in the 5-gallon jug. Now pour the 3-gallon jug out. Pour the remaining 2 gallons from the 5-gallon into the empty 3-gallon jug. Now fill the 5-gallon from the faucet. You now have exactly 7 gallons.

Today - It's 100 bananas off the PE Master Package for the first 15 correct respondents. LFG!

A sundial has the fewest moving parts of any timepiece. Which has the most?

Shoot us your guesses at [email protected] with the subject line "Banana Brain Teaser" or simply click here to reply!

Wise Investor Says

"Successful trading is always an emotional battle for the speculator, not an intelligent battle." - Jesse Livermore

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