Time series forecasting v Active forecasting.
When I compare analysts consensus forecast v time series forecasting, very rarely is their a big deviation. When a deviation occurs, I would go to the financial statement and if the company in question is forecasting 20% growth, I would simply take my time series forecast and multiply it by 1.20, and again, the deviation is very small from the consensus forecast.
Im wondering from anyone who has done it professionally - what degree of input goes into forecasting future revenue/profit/cash growth?
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