Trump nukes deal

MARKETS

• U.S. markets: Stocks were unfazed as President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Iran deal. The iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (up 1.5%) had its best day since March 26.
• Commodities: Oil prices also didn't flinch on the decision. Some analysts think Iranian crude production won't be significantly reduced.
• Earnings today: ADT, AB Inbev, Groupon, 21st Century Fox, Wix.

GEOPOLITICS

About That Iran Deal Decision...

Well, it's official. President Trump has pulled the U.S. out of the Iran nuclear deal in a massive decision that'll shake up global politics and the economy for years to come. Sound intense? It is.

And whether you think that was the right call or not (European allies did not, foreign policy hawks did), businesses across the world have to come to grips with what happens next.

So...what happens next?
Trump said that the U.S. will reimpose the "highest level" of economic sanctions after 90-day and 180-day periods.

What it means: Among other ripple effects (like greater political uncertainty in the Middle East), multinationals will, once again, have to reconsider their relationship with Iran.

Because here's what's at stake: Tens of billions of dollars in business deals. When the sanctions were relaxed, large corporations in the U.S. and Europe (well, mostly Europe) rushed to do business with the Iranians. They came back with a few massive contracts...that could now win a date with the shredder.

Let's go sector-by-sector

• Energy: French oil and gas giant Total invested $1 billion in a natural gas project.
• Aviation: Airbus sold 100 airplanes to Iran Air. Boeing (-0.61%) also agreed to sell about $20 billion worth of planes (at list prices), but it hasn't delivered any yet.
• Auto: French automaker Renault hooked up with a state-backed Iranian company to build 150,000 cars each year.

Bottom line: With the U.S. out, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani says he'll start negotiating with the five other countries remaining in the deal. Still, the U.S. sanctions will restore a deep chill to foreign investment in Iran.

MEDIA

Comcast Tries Ruining Disney's Parade

As Q1 earnings season finishes up, we found some leftover mouse droppings. Disney (-0.67%) topped expectations on almost all fronts (thanks, Wakanda).

• Earnings: $1.84 per share vs. $1.70 per share expected.
• Revenue: $14.55 billion vs. $14.11 billion expected.

But Comcast CEO Brian Roberts might be spoiling the party
No, not with poorly timed, awkward jokes, but with $60 billion in financing and a competing offer for 21st Century Fox's media assets. Yes, the very same assets Disney bid on for $52 billion.

Slow down: Comcast (-5.56%) hasn't punched in a bid yet (nor has it secured the $60 billion), but it seems laser-focused on doing both. As evidence:

1. It already offered Fox (-0.13%) $64 billion last November (which was rejected).
2. Comcast just one-upped Fox's bid for the rest of UK pay-TV network Sky.

Which leaves us with three media moguls and two possible scenarios
Mogul No. 1: Bob Iger, Disney's fearless leader. The genius behind the acquisitions of Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm would cap off his storied career (he's hoping to retire) with his biggest and boldest acquisition yet: parts of Fox and 100% of Sky.

Mogul No. 2: Brian Roberts. When he succeeded his father on the Comcast throne, he scaled the company into an $84 billion in revenue empire. His most prized trophy might be the acquisition of NBCUniversal in 2011, but Fox and Sky would be a close second.

If the AT&T-Time Warner deal gets the green light, Roberts will stop at nothing to undercut Iger.

Mogul No. 3: Rupert Murdoch, the 87-year-old who invented the idea of a media empire. His best case scenario? Disney wins and Murdoch trades up shares in Fox's traditional media business for a forward-thinking Disney.

So how will it end? Iger says it's no contest. But welcome to the Game of Unknowns...acquisitions are coming.

TECH

Slide Over Microsoft, Google’s Developer Conference Is Here

As Google's I/O developer conference kicked off, one thing was clear: CEO Sundar Pichai has been watching way too much Westworld. AI took center stage in Sundar's opening presentation. This is the power of Google's AI:

1. It can help identify signs of cardiovascular disease years before a patient is even diagnosed.
2. It can sift through complicated audio files separating each voice as if it was the only one talking.
3. It can autofill text and emails with (apparently) greater predictive capabilities than Apple's autocorrect.
4. Got an old black and white picture? With one tap, Google's AI can revive it with color.

Bottom line: AI's here, it can schedule your next haircut, it's got John Legend's voice, and we're only scratching the surface.

+ Want the full Google I/O recap?

FOOD & BEVERAGE

Panera Delivers on Delivery

"Yea uh, I'll have a broccoli cheddar bread bowl, a caesar salad, and 13,000 delivery drivers."

That's more or less Panera's order after announcing it would expand its delivery service nationwide. That's—count it—897 cities and 43 states across the U.S.

So there's demand for delivery?
You could say that. Your local Panera pulls in $7,000 a week more with delivery. But it almost wasn't that way...

Zoom out: In 2014, Panera was about one panini's length away from killing off delivery. Now? Bloomberg suggests that Panera's in-house operation is already more economical than Uber Eats.

Bottom line: As in-store restaurant sales slump, the chains delivering the most grub per capita will survive.

TRANSPORTATION

Uber Air Taxis. They're a Thing Now.

Oh, you thought e-scooters were a cool way to get around? How cute, says Uber.

At its Elevate Summit, Uber revealed its air taxi prototype: a drone-looking aircraft that will operate more like a helicopter (vertical takeoffs and landings, but quieter since it's electric).

The strategy, according to Dara K.: "We want to create the network around those vehicles so that regular people can take these taxis in the air for longer distances when they want to avoid traffic at affordable prices."

Coming to a skyline near you: Uber plans to test its UberAIR service in Dallas and L.A. in 2020.

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

• Takeda finally reached an agreement to take over Shire for $62 billion. It's the largest ever acquisition for a Japanese company.
• Argentina is in talks with the IMF for a $30 billion credit line.
• Slack now has 8 million daily active users and 3 million paying subscribers.
• Square (+4.30%) is introducing Square for Restaurants, which can streamline a restaurant's operations from booking tables to collecting checks.
• The White House will hold a meeting on Thursday with tech giants including Amazon, Google, and Facebook. On the agenda? AI.

BREAKROOM

VENTURE THIS RESPONSES
Yesterday, we asked whether you would stick out your tongue and say, "AHHHHHHH" for Suki, the voice-enabled doctor's assistant. And...69% of you would invest, while 31% wouldn't. What you said:

"The key is not in the technology. The key is in market penetration. The company that can develop, implement, and execute on a market penetration program that delivers physicians to the product will win."

"Health and medical industry is ripe for disruption...if Suki can accurately document a doctor's notes, it will be a game changer. End game, acquisition by Google or Amazon for a pretty penny."

WHAT THE CREW IS WATCHING
Don't feel like reading all 592 pages of Principles by Ray Dalio? Check out his short, animated series on the same subject matter instead.

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