Given what we know now, what do you think the catalyst for the next recession will be and why? Fed seems to be very cautious with interest rate hikes, so there's a lower probability of this spiking our economy.
The big one I can think of (as I suspect most others can) is potentially a trade war. Aside from this obvious catalyst, any other ones you see that could send us into a recession? Why?
Europe already made concessions. Canada and Mexico will be next. China’s economy is being pounded and will eventually concede.
So a Trade war isn’t going to topple shit. I don’t think we will see much fed action until after the midterms. Either way, the tax cuts helped fuel the real economy.
I’d imagine if a far left wing Democrat is elected in 2020. The market would be depressed and the reinstatement of the endless Obama regulations, coupled with higher taxes (only trick the Dems have), would slow the economy substantially.
Ugh... jobs added to the economy since Trump was elected is exactly the same in the equivalent time period during Obama’s last run. It has nothing to do with Trump. Republicans think the economy is a little better than when Obama was in office and Dems think the opposite. Tired of seeing this left nut vs right but stuff. You both should just go in a room and knock boots already.
TNA’s ability to spew hatred towards “the left” in every thread, regardless of topic, continues to astound me.
sex robots & VR. men will never leave the house, hurting productivity and procreation, slowing consumer spending. eventually they will all go on food stamps because they don't want to work (I have food & sex, what more do you need?), and so what starts as an economic downturn becomes a debt spiral with an aging population that doesn't die because of cardiovascular and prostate health given all of the fucking men are doing.
if you think I'm serious, go make another cup of coffee. if you could predict the next recession, you'd make out very nicely. there are factors that will contribute to it, but the straw that breaks the camel's back is almost always a surprise when it happens (not so much the what, but the when)
My theory:
Tensions in Middle East / some sort of future event like major ISIS bombing / Israel-Palestine war leads to bad political consequences: * Maybe another OPEC oil embargo * Saudi manipulation of global market * US and Russia take opposite sides, reignite Cold War, tariffs all over the place, general fearmongering, etc.
Consumer confidence sharply declines, and recession is exacerbated by a variety of factors: * Increasing number of retirees * Very little in the way of savings for most Americans * Massive student debt * Rising cost of healthcare * Stagnant real wage growth * Elevated housing prices * Fed funds rate half of what it was during the last recession (limits ability to use monetary policy)
SP500 takes a big 20-30% crash because of political event, all the news networks proclaim the end of the world, people stop buying shit in fear, world economy comes to a halt.