What's the play for student loan forgiveness?

It is becoming increasingly likely that Biden will be announcing a student loan forgiveness plan in the near future. So what is the consensus here on how the markets will react and how to play it?

My underlying theory is that he will make two announcements (1) partial forgiveness and (2) lift the moratorium on payments. I simply don't see how he can both forgive the loans but not ask people to start paying again.

I haven't quite pieced together all the components - that's why I"m here seeking a consensus - but I'm leaning towards a net negative on the market and consumer sentiment. After all, it's not like the people on payment moratoriums are keeping that money in a safe place, it's already been spent and people are accustomed to that "new" lifestyle without payments. Surely some of the current housing market has been driven by that, no? That doesn't feel like it will lead to a positive outcome.

What say you?

 
 

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