2Y Analyst - Lateral Hire

i have a buddy that is making a move into IB, and he had a good question that i haven't really encountered and thought some people here might be able to shed some light on it.

he is coming into a 2Y analyst role and is lateraling in from a non-IB role. most firms do not extend 3Y analyst positions to everyone, but is it more likely that the lateral hire will be held onto for a full two years (rather than going into the pool of 2Y analysts up for 3Y offers)? is this an appropriate question to ask? and if so, who would be the best person to ask (HR, MDs, other Analyst/Associates at the firm)?

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