Blackstone IPO - Any insight?
What is everyone's take on this, as well as congressional attempts to move back the date?
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Wasn't aware they were trying to move back the date. They priced it today ($31 I think.. at the top of their range) and it should start trading tomorrow under BX. Anybody buying it?
im gonna stay away from that one. its going to pop tomorrow and trade at a huge premium to the 31 pricing. its trading at 16x earnings at 31, and i wouldnt be surprised to see it trade upwards of 30x after tomorrow...it will be impossible to get in at 31. Look what happened to fortress, stock popped on the first day, anyone who bought it is down like 20%. i know they arent the same company, but its the closest thing in the public market...
also, the tax issue is another factor that could bode poorly for BX...if they have to foot a huge tax bill like people are talking about, its gonna be a big hit to the bottom line and business going forward. and last but def not least is the issue of rising interest rates. the higher rates go, the less attractive and more expensive deals are going to be. I wholeheartedly believe we are going to see much higher interest rates in future for a variety of reasons I wont delve into right now. but to answer the original question, Im not buying BX...
I'm thinking about a short-term trade.. Also KKR announced today that they are considering an IPO soon; they hired Morgan Stanley and Citigroup to advise them. Good sign we've peaked?
if u play it right the shor term trade has a shot, most likely there will be some left over block buying that could not get done the first day. its easy for the individual investor to get a few shares, compared to an institution getting a big chunk. I think once you see volume wane and bulk buying come in, there might even be a chance for a short trade...risky though...
i think we are in the process of peaking private equity. its not a coincidence that these guys are trying to all come to market now, they see a slow down coming and want to take advantage of an opportunity to rake in the dough before its too late....then in a few years when the shares are rock bottom, buy them all back at a huge discount and make money a second time around..
if I am right about interest rates rising over then next few years, the volume and size of deals will come down significantly..i guess we'll see..
I guess I need to get out of lev fin and into distressed or credit derivs!
Andy Kessler has an interesting piece on the credit cycle and the outlook for the PE industry:
http://www.andykessler.com/andy_kessler/2007/06/wsj-blackstones.html
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