Chance of early promo in current environment?

Ignore title, currently an ASO2 at a BB. I was told in 2022 that I'd be considered for early promotion, but feeling less certain about it now given the current environment with headcount cuts, pullback in budgets, etc.

Historically (or preferably if any datapoints from 2023), does early promotion timelines get impacted by the macro environment or generally is it individual / performance related? 

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