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What indications are there that CS will bankrupt?
None.
Well, there's some indicators that don't look great: they've got an issuance due '26 that's yielding 20% over UST. CDS is at levels last seen in GFC.
My base case isn't bankruptcy though.
I'd imagine the new CS First Boston will be fine since CS already stated they plan to divest it and Saudi National Bank plans on being seed money for it. But then there's the other thing, which is I don't see the Swiss government letting CS fail. As far as ethically if CS should be allowed to fail, that's another story.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/03/15/credit-suisse-shares-slide-after-sa…
I understand that and the 10% regulatory stake, I'm talking about the new CSFB upon their splitoff whether its an IPO or whatever
It’s anyone’s guess but lots of mandates are won based on firm reputation and relationships. A lot of MDs and group heads have left which harms the latter and depending on how long this goes on for and how turbulent it is going to harm the former, just a matter of how much.
Oh you are working for the National Swiss Bank of Zurich?
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