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Agree, 2021 was an off year. Would think bonus as % of base figures revert back to pre-Covid levels, i.e. 50-80% of base. Could be less if some banks decide comp increases were just a shift from base to bonus instead of an overall increase in comp, though I think that is unlikely. BBs, especially EU ones who lack behind their US counterparts significantly with the gap only widening, will continue to focus on cost cutting, with variable comp being the easiest lever to move. Will be interesting to observe, even more so with some banks possibly having overhired in expectation of another record year.

 
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