Has Trump Permanently Changed the U.S. - Canada Relationship?

Not trying to make this partisan. I’m more interested in whether something structural has changed.

For most of modern history, Canada has operated on the assumption that the U.S. relationship is permanent, predictable, and ultimately cooperative. That feels less obvious now.

Carney is talking more openly about reducing Canada’s dependence on the U.S., building closer ties with Europe, and becoming more self-reliant in areas like energy, defense, critical minerals and infrastructure. Trump, meanwhile, has been much more willing to use tariffs and economic pressure against Canada.

The obvious counterargument is that geography wins. The U.S. will probably remain Canada’s most important economic partner no matter what, and once Trump is gone maybe things gradually normalize.

But I wonder if the bigger change is psychological. Even if tariffs eventually disappear, Canadian governments and businesses may no longer assume U.S. market access is something they can always rely on.

Ten years from now, do we look back at this as another temporary trade dispute, or as the point where Canada genuinely started trying to become less dependent on the U.S.?