I'm going to be starting full time in IBD this summer and I wanted to get a pulse of what people think regarding how long this year's new associates and analysts will last before more layoffs come. I'm going to UBS, but this discussion doesn't have to be bank specific.
Thoughts?
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Quickest answer: as long as they are needed. If you end up in the wrong group, sorry to say, and your group slows down a lot or is shredded, you will probably be let go pretty quickly. If, however, you land in a group that stays busy and has a decent pipeline, then you should be fine. I know strong analysts that were let go, and weaker analysts that still hang on because of the groups that they are in. I mean if the analyst is really bad, then obviously there is no reason to keep him/her, but in general, it depends more on the group - a 1st year won't be targeted in the layoffs, it's more just line of business cuts. Hopefully you land in a safe group as UBS is, just a bit, uncertain these days (then again, most firms share that same description).
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Would banks not move a strong analyst from a group that has to cut them to a stronger group, and rather layoff a poor analyst in the busy group if one exists?
You would think that would be the case, but again, we are not talking about a 5 analyst being fired, and a 1 analyst staying. In general, the really bad analysts would have been fired already as well. In general, a strong analyst would not be moved to another group to replace another analyst, because presumably, the other analyst is probably pretty decent as well, plus the group knows that analyst and not you. In general, if a line is fired and the analyst is let go, they may try to find a place for the analyst if other groups are hiring, but they would not fire someone else that does his/her job pretty well (or very well) to put this analyst in his/her place - there's a learning curve with each group.
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Considering that it is UBS you are lucky that you are entering this summer I assume you were deferred last year or part of the luck ones that didn't get deferred this year. I expect to last two years, as I am going to UBS as well and got deferred till 2010.
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