IB Headcount reduction for return offers
Is it fair to assume that firms have less budget and therefore will give less return offers?
If I was given a not very good mid summer review, can I assume I’m on the chopping block and should start looking elsewhere for a job? Who is even hiring right now?
Everyone always thinks this in tough times, but my brother in Christ (1) analysts are cheap labor and will be last affected and (2) your ‘offer’ wouldn’t be based on current market conditions are… it would be based off the market 12-24mo. out from now and if they believe THAT will be a tight period for the firm.
Relax and do your job.
Yeah see this was disproven this winter when my bank and many others cut their analyst classes in half. It may be the cheapest but we were also there the shortest amount of time.
It’s not about budget, it’s about headcount need. The question won’t be can we afford this analyst but do we need this analyst. Almost every bank has done cuts and analysts were some of the first to go.
It’s a tough market and no one can predict the recovery, so I think it would be smart to start considering other options just in case. You may have time to patch your bad review, but put more emphasis on relationship building if you haven’t already.
yes, at my GS/MS/JPM bank, we already know return offer rates wont be 100% for our group (top group so we normally get the best kids who naturally excel hence the 100% rate) like they were historically. this mean's we're cutting kids who are actually really talented if they are ranked such that we run out of spots
i am, doesn't change the fact the ~40% of the interns are screwed or that you couldn't hack it and get into a top group at a top bank or that im going to MFPE (unlike you)
You were hired as an intern after the market dropped last year (+many banks hire a few more in fall that they didn't this year) so there's already been some headcount adjustment
It's really not a useful thought exercise either way. Just do your best and try to show a lot of improvement. If you're really worried about FT recruiting you can start networking, but if your intern review was just "good job, improve on XYZ" then you may be overthinking it.
define not very good mid summer review
At larger banks, HR will have projections of headcount needs 12 months ahead, and will use that to backsolve how many offers are given today.
These projections are constantly evolving, and will use as an input assumptions about attrition rates of existing employees, likely # of offer declines or # of offer recipients who renege on their offer, etc.
In the current market, it's hard to assume a high level of attrition based on (A) the number of juniors already on the market, and (B) no concrete evidence of a resurgence of deal activity (and anyone making forecasts will need something to back up such an assumption, not just speculation). It's also quite expensive to hire someone only to then lay them off, so there's a culture of greater conservatism than less.
So this is a sucky message to socialise, but yes, I think that there'll be less offers to interns as a % in this year than in prior years.
That said, as another poster has noted, this doesn't matter much now. Get your head down and focus on securing one of the return offers that do get given.
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