Is Analyst to Associate promotion guaranteed?

Currently in a U.S. Bulge bracket IB division, used to think A2A promotion is guaranteed, but heard that’s no longer true this year given the poor market condition…

Has anyone has any insight and advice for those who worked their ass off in the last 2 years but cant even be promoted to Associate….

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I assumed that is quite rare in the normal time? Unlike a top bulge bracket planning to cut 30-40% in the A2A promotion process, that is destroying the career of junior banker

 

Now it's just a headcount reduction thing. No need for associates

Outside of that, anyone who wasn't terrible / a culture issue usually got an offer if they expressed interest in it. Even a mediocre analyst with 2 years of experience/institutional knowledge will be light years ahead of even the best MBA associates for quite a while. Usually had to put your hand up a year in advance to make sure they had spots though, anyone who just struck out on PE and tried to stay became a third year.

 
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